Bowl projections: It's beginning to look a lot like Texas

Schools from the state of Michigan did more than just separate themselves from their opponents last Saturday. With Michigan State's 37-21 win at Iowa and Michigan's 31-14 victory at Illinois, the Michigan schools helped create a divide in the Big Ten's bowl pecking order.

Five Big Ten schools already have eight wins and virtually have spots locked up from the Bowl Championship Series through the Insight Bowl. Three other schools (Ohio State, Iowa, Illinois) have six wins and two more have five (Purdue, Northwestern). You could almost throw Ohio State in eight-win category because any bowl with a shot at the Buckeyes will take them. Ohio State hasn't played in a bowl below the Bowl Championship Series since 2004.

The Big Ten's bowl scenarios are cloudy with seven teams still armed with a shot at the Rose Bowl. Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan State have the easiest routes to the inaugural Big Ten title game: win and in. Michigan State plays 1-9 Indiana and 5-5 Northwestern. One Spartan slip-up - possibly to Northwestern - allows Nebraska to get back in the Legends Division race. Two Michigan State losses bring Iowa and Michigan into play. That's not going to happen.

Wisconsin is the league's best team but faces a slightly more challenging route to Indianapolis. The Badgers travel to 6-4 Illinois - which has lost four straight games - this week and then play host to 8-2 Penn State in the finale. Two Penn State wins or a win against Wisconsin coupled with an Ohio State loss to Michigan seals the Leaders Division title for the Nittany Lions. Ohio State claims the crown if it wins twice and there's a three-way tie at the top.

The Big Ten champion automatically qualifies for the Rose Bowl, but it's doubtful the loser gains entry to the BCS. Should the winner of Saturday's game between Nebraska and Michigan also wins its regular-season finale, it finishes 10-2. The Big Ten title game loser is 10-3.  Bowls often eschew taking teams that lost their last game because fair-weather fans are less excited to spend money and travel to their bowls. Nebraska and Michigan both have national cache and would boast three-game winning streaks. Look for the Michigan-Nebraska winner to end up at the Fiesta Bowl, which has the first at-large selection this year.

Right now Penn State is toxic but that will fade in a few weeks. Penn State has a large alumni base and generates good television ratings.

Unless Illinois or Iowa pull a major upset in the final two weeks - say Illinois over Wisconsin or Iowa over Nebraska - those schools join Northwestern and Purdue as competitors for the league's final three bowl spots.

If Iowa beats Purdue this week, the Hawkeyes end up in Houston at the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas. Should Purdue beat Iowa and then Indiana, you'll see the Boilermakers in Houston. Iowa will not slip past the TicketCity Bowl unless both Illinois and Northwestern have seven wins. The likely TicketCity Bowl opponent would be SMU, which presents all sorts of marketing opportunities with Hayden Fry. Plus, TicketCity Bowl President Tom Starr is a 1971 Iowa graduate.

So here's how I see the Big Ten's bowl lineup shaking out:

• ROSE - Wisconsin. Still the best team in the league
• FIESTA - Nebraska. Flip a coin between the Cornhuskers and Wolverines this Saturday and the winner goes here
• CAPITAL ONE - Michigan. See above
• OUTBACK - Michigan State. The Spartans slip one spot because they played in the Capital One Bowl last year
• INSIGHT - Ohio State. If you can get the Buckeyes, get the Buckeyes
• GATOR - Penn State. Still too marketable to completely pass up, unless Iowa beats Nebraska
• MEINEKE/TEXAS -Iowa. Fans travel the best among the final four, plus Illinois was here last year
• TICKETCITY - Illinois. This spot depends on the finale against Minnesota
• LITTLE CAESAR'S - Purdue. Still not a bad recruiting spot
• IDAHO POTATO - Northwestern. Replaces a WAC team, which heads to the New Orleans Bowl

AS FOR THE REST of the bowls, there's a chance none of the non-BCS qualifiers qualify for a BCS bowl this year. Boise State lost its chance by falling to TCU. Houston, which is undefeated, could lose any of its final three games. TCU must advance to the top 16 to gain automatic entry to a BCS bowl.

So here are my bowl projections without a non-BCS qualifier this year:

• BCS Championship - LSU vs. Oklahoma State
• Rose - Wisconsin (Big Ten champ) vs. Oregon (Pac-12 champ)
• Fiesta - Oklahoma (replaces OSU) vs. Nebraska (first at-large)
• Sugar - Alabama (replaces LSU) vs. Stanford (second at-large)
• Orange - Clemson (ACC champ) vs. West Virginia (Big East champ)

BIG TEN BOWLS

• Capital One Bowl - Michigan vs. Georgia
• Outback - Michigan State vs. South Carolina
• Insight - Ohio State vs. Kansas State
• Gator - Penn State vs. Florida
• Meineke - Iowa vs. Baylor
• TicketCity - Illinois vs. SMU
• Little Caesar's - Purdue vs. Toledo
• Idaho Potato - Northwestern vs. Ohio

SECOND-TIER

• Cotton - Arkansas vs. Texas
• Alamo - Washington vs. Texas A&M
• Chick-fil-A - Auburn vs. Virginia Tech
• Champs - Notre Dame vs. Florida State
• Liberty - Tennessee vs. Southern Miss
• Music City - Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina State
• Sun - Arizona State vs. Georgia Tech
• Holiday - UCLA vs. Missouri
• Belk - Virginia vs. Cincinnati
• Compass - Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh
• Las Vegas - Boise State vs. Houston (I see this as an arranged matchup)
• Independence - TCU vs. Miami (Fla.)

OTHER BOWLS

• GoDaddy - Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
• Kraft Fight Hunger - California vs. Wake Forest (replaces Army)
• Pinstripe - Rutgers vs. Temple (replaces Big 12)
• Armed Forces - BYU vs. Tulsa
• Military - Navy vs. North Carolina
• Hawaii - Hawaii vs. UTEP
• Poinsettia - San Diego State vs. Nevada
• Beef O'Brady's - South Florida vs. East Carolina
• New Orleans - Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Tech (replaces Conference USA)
• New Mexico - Wyoming vs. Utah