B1G Predictions: League standings, 10 (plus 4) Big thoughts

IOWA CITY -- Wisconsin Coach Bo Ryan was candid and direct two months ago when describing the Badgers' chances at success this year.

Ryan stared at a front line without Ryne Evans, Mike Bruesewitz and Jared Berggren. But Ryan also knew he had talented freshman Nigel Hayes, a healthy Josh Gasser, proven point guard Traevon Jackson and the team's best scoring threats in Sam Dekker and Ben Brust. Ryan scheduled bullishly in the non-conference to see if his team could handle the rigorous Big Ten slate.

"If it's not the youngest team we've ever had since I've been there, it's close," Ryan said at Big Ten Media Day. "We're trying to get old in a hurry. We will play a lot of teams that are used to winning, teams that are used to being on the left-hand side when the score comes out. So you hope that -- I've always been big on preparing for whatever conference, whatever league I'm coaching in, and get ready for the Big Ten. So I'm sure that the opponents that we're playing nonconference will give us the test that we need, and how we respond to them, we'll see."

Wisconsin's results are bullish themselves. The No. 4-ranked Badgers (13-0) cleaned up in the non-conference and now are best positioned to win their first Big Ten  regular-season title since 2008. Center Frank Kaminsky has emerged as an inside scoring threat, and Wisconsin plays contenders Michigan State and Ohio State just once and both are at Kohl Center.

Entering Big Ten play today, four teams have separated themselves as the clear favorites. Wisconsin, No. 3 Ohio State (13-0) and No. 5 Michigan State (12-1) are ranked in the top five, followed by No. 22 Iowa (11-2). But there are five teams lurking below the surface that have a chance to move up the standings in Illinois, Minnesota, defending champion Indiana, Purdue and Michigan.

Iowa Coach Fran McCaffery sees one common factor for Big Ten success, especially among the favorites.

"You really have to protect your home court," he said. "Everybody knows that and at the same time, everybody looks at opportunity on the road. 'Can we go get a road win, because we're going to have to play nine tough road games. What kind of team do we have? Are we tough enough? Are we together? Can we deal with the crowd because every place has an atmosphere that's impressive?' That's what it is. When you get to the end, the ones that are able to do that, are the ones who are still standing and still playing in March. So it's a big test for us, and we'll be ready for it."

Get ready for the grind. Here's how I see the Big Ten stacking up:

1. Michigan State (15-3 in league)

2. Wisconsin 14-4

3. Iowa 13-5

4. Ohio State 11-7

5. Illinois 10-8

6. Indiana 10-8

7. Purdue 9-9

7. Minnesota 8-10

9. Michigan 7-11

10. Nebraska 5-13

11. Penn State 4-14

12. Northwestern 2-16

1. Regular-season champion -- Michigan State. The Spartans boast the league's best scoring guard in Gary Harris, best post player in Adreian Payne, a tough-minded senior point guard in Keith Appling and a healthy Branden Dawson. Oh, and there's Coach Tom Izzo.

2. Tournament champion -- Iowa. With its depth, length, scoring ability and experience, Iowa could do some damage in a tournament setting where seven-man rotations typically fall apart.

3. Underrated -- Indiana. The Hoosiers lost NBA draft picks Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller along with overseas pros Jordan Hulls and Christian Watford so a drop-off is expected. But Indiana boasts the league's best scoring point guard in Yogi Ferrell, a dynamite freshman big man in Noah Vonleh and there's always Assembly Hall. Plus the Hoosiers play Iowa, Ohio State, Purdue and Minnesota just once.

4. Trending down -- Michigan. The Wolverines lost scorers Trey Burke and Tim Haradaway Jr. to the NBA but the biggest blow came last week when the team announced sophomore center Mitch McGary will have back surgery. There's enough talent remaining to stay competitive but that often means losing plenty of close games. Remember the NCAA runner-up finished 11-7 in Big Ten play last year.

5. Trending up -- Purdue. The Boilermakers have the potential to get dinged with more fouls than anyone (especially with the renewed emphasis on loosening up the game), but with Terone Johnson and Ronnie Johnson, coupled with promising (and enigmatic) sophomore center A.J. Hammons, Purdue could scrap to 9-9. The Boilers also play Ohio State, Iowa, Indiana and Illinois only once. Hammons is the key.

6. Could make a move -- Penn State. The Nittany Lions limped to a 2-16 league mark last year but with Tim Frazier back, Penn State has the potential to knock off a heavyweight or two at home.

7. League MVP -- Payne. He currently ranks fifth in scoring and fifth in rebounding. He brings a toughness to the Spartans that's vital in the meat grinder of Big Ten play.

8. Coach of the Year -- McCaffery. In four years McCaffery has turned the Hawkeyes from a bland, untalented lot to the doorstep of Big Ten contention. For those that remember a walk-on defending the national player of the year and an Orange Krush invasion at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, the turnaround is nothing short of remarkable.

9. Potential upsets for contenders (not against each other) -- Michigan State: at Indiana (Jan. 4), at Illinois (Jan. 18); Iowa: at Penn State (Feb. 15), at Minnesota (Feb. 25); Wisconsin: at Minnesota (Jan. 22), at Purdue (Jan. 25); Ohio State: at Purdue (Dec. 31), at Penn State (Feb. 27)

10. Games of the year candidates -- Iowa at Wisconsin (Jan. 5), Ohio State at Michigan State (Jan. 7), Michigan State at Wisconsin (Feb. 9), Michigan State at Michigan (Feb. 23), Iowa at Michigan State (March 6), Michigan State at Ohio State (March 9)

A. NCAA teams: Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio State, Illinois, Indiana, Purdue

B. NIT: Minnesota, Michigan

C. Worth watching (part I): Iowa at Illinois, Feb. 1. The Hawkeyes have lost 22 of their last 23 games in Champaign, dating to their miraculous 22-point comeback win in 1987. Iowa's average margin of defeat in those games is 12.2, and the only win was in 1999, when Illinois finished last in Big Ten play. A win in Champaign is worth sipping Champagne for Iowa.

D. Worth watching (part II): Cherish those rivalries. With the Big Ten adding Maryland and Rutgers next year, the regular-season schedule includes just five double plays and eight single plays. It just won't be the same, folks.