An Insight Bowl breakdown from a Las Vegas handicapper

Through Twitter and e-mail, I've become acquainted with R.J. Bell, the CEO of Pregame.com. You can read his tweets at http://Twitter.com/RJinVegas.

Every week, he mails out interesting facts and figures about football oddsmaking. You may have heard Bell on some of his appearances on Colin Cowherd's ESPN.com radio show.

Pregame noted that a $100 moneyline parlay on the Green Bay Packers losing their first game of the season Sunday along with the Indianapolis Colts winning their first game would have paid $2,240. Throwing in the Washington Redskins would have bumped the payout to $7,850.

I like that stuff, even though it never relates to me. Because betting $100 on anything to happen in an NFL game would make me queasy. There's no safety net in betting on pro football, even when you're sure of something.

Anyway, Bell sent me the workup of the Insight Bowl as presented by Pregame.com handicapper Tony George. I'll say it here, 11 days before the game: I think Iowa makes a ballgame of it, and I think the current 13.5-point line is high. I wonder how an Oklahoma team that had visions of playing for a national-title gets its mind right for a far-lesser bowl. But George begs to differ. Here is his take, and I thank Bell for sending it my way:

One question you always ask yourself at bowl time is who is disappointed in their bowl game and who might in fact have a motivational edge in the game. If that was purely the reason for making a selection against the Las Vegas line, then Iowa would be a clear cut choice here.

Oklahoma was ranked tops in the nation at one point this season and then bitter and shocking defeats and major injuries to key players reared their ugly head for the proud Sooners, and a season ending blowout woodshed butt kicking by in state rival Okie State capped off a miserable year for OU. The Sooners will enter this game without their star RB and WR Broyles who was a Heisman candidate, and since his injury, Heisman hopeful QB Landry Jones just fell off the map at QB and had an average year at best. In an off field incident December 8th, back up RB Roy Finch has been suspended as of the writing of this article, and is questionable to make the bowl trip, he was cited by local police for property damage and faces team discipline. Fortunately for Oklahoma they are deep at skill positions.

On the other side Iowa ended their season with a 20-7 loss at Nebraska, and have been inconsistent all year after losing NFL draft pick Ricky Stanzi at QB, they have failed to stay consistent on offense all year and lack big play capability. Iowa has has some ugly losses as well, including a road loss to Minnesota. It should be noted that head coach Kirk Ferentz is 7-2 ATS as a Bowl coach for them in his 9 seasons, and Iowa is always a strong play in Bowl games.

Looking at the numbers here overall and the intangibles, they clearly favor Oklahoma, especially on offense where they outgain the Hawkeyes 140 yards per game in total yards. Oklahoma was involved in season ending shootouts against Baylor and Okie State and their defensive numbers are skewed somewhat, and Iowa's offense does not match up well against OU's defense and their overall team speed.

On defense the teams are pretty even, but OU played in a much more high octane style conference in the Big 12 versus the bump and grind style of most Big 10 teams. The contrasting styles between these two conferences in terms of a body of season long work favor Oklahoma. Iowa just flat out lost to every good team they played this year. The Hawkeyes' one signature win was against Michigan at home where they were outgained in total yards, but Michigan gave up 3 crucial turnovers in that game that put Iowa on top.

At days end this is a ton of points in any bowl game involving 2 teams from BCS conferences, but my sources close to Oklahoma tell me they are ready to play this game and are looking for some "face saving" efforts in this one. As I compare Iowa's offense and defense to teams that OU has played, Kansas State comes closest to Iowa's scheme and OU beat K-State 58-17 on the road this season and that was off the Texas Tech loss. Iowa simply cannot trade punches in this game in my opinion on the scoreboard and as much as Iowa has shown up in the past in bowl games, Oklahoma has too much firepower on offense and pull away late here.

Oklahoma 38 Iowa 21 Lay the wood