A lot goes into deciding future Big Ten divisions

Statistics, tradition and rhetoric are against a Big Ten East-West split along the Illinois-Indiana border.

Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany said in June that competitive balance is the first criteria when determining divisional alignment, followed by rivalries and geography.

Delany reiterated those principles last week at Big Ten Media Days in Chicago.

The Big Ten plans to split into two divisions in 2011 when Nebraska joins the conference as its 12th team. Within the next 45 days, Big Ten officials will set the divisions, and the league will have a conference title game in 2011 at Indianapolis.

To develop equitable divisions, Big Ten officials compiled a 17-year sample of win-loss records and other data from 1993 through 2009. Delany called it the Big Ten's 'modern' era ushered in by Penn State's joining the league, plus the lowering of scholarships from 93 to 85 and the precursor to the Bowl Championship Series.

Using a snake method (1-45-8-9-12, 2-36-7-10-11) based on league wins over a 17-yearperiod, divisions lined up almost equally. One division would have Ohio State (106 wins), Penn State (86), Wisconsin (79), Purdue (63), Northwestern (59) and Indiana. The other would have Nebraska (96), Michigan (94), Iowa (71), Michigan State (63), Illinois (45) and Minnesota (44). The league could then preserve longtime rivalries like Michigan-Ohio State and Minnesota-Wisconsin by designating those games as annual rivalries.

'If it's not a competitive setup, I think we'll all regret it later,' Iowa Athletics Director Gary Barta said. 'No. 1, let's make sure however we set this up that it's competitive over a long period of time. No. 2, how many of these rivalries can we protect.

It became apparent to me that they all might not get protected, but it looks like we'll get to protect almost all of them. No. 3, is there a way to take those first two and then make it make sense geographically? I think we're getting close.' Another divisional hybrid providing the most balance could include an

east-west combination that flips Penn State to the west for Northwestern. An eastern division of Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue and Northwestern posted 418 league wins since 1993, compared to 421 for Nebraska, Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Illinois.

When taking Delany's principles in reverse order, a geographical split might have merit.

Obviously, geography is solved and rivalries largely remain in place.

Of the league's 22 designated rivalries played annually, only two Northwestern-Purdue, Illinois-Indiana -- would be interrupted.

The competitive balance is skewed toward the east, both historically and with data. Eastern schools have won 445 league games since 1993, compared to the western group's 394. Three of the league's four winningest programs since 1993 Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State -- are in the east. Those three have played a combined 19 BCS bowl games since 1993.

Only one other eastern school, Purdue, has played in one. Indiana in the east had only 33 winsover the 17-year-period, 11 fewer than Minnesota, the second-lowest.

But the west is more balanced.

In the west, five schools have played in a combined 16 BCS bowl games since 1993. Nebraska, which joins the Big Ten in 2011, has the second-most conference and overall wins since 1993. Iowa and Wisconsin have winning Big Ten records over the same span and combined to play in five BCS bowls.

Although history doesn't favor an equal east-west split, current factors might make it a consideration. Historical power Michigan is coming off a 1-7 last-place league finish, and Minnesota just built a $288.5 million stadium that could boost the program's recruiting profile.

'I think competitive fairness from the perspective of the coach, the player, the fan, media, it's got to be seen in those divisions,' Delany said.

'But they also have to be constructed in a wise way that does everything we can within that first principle or consistent with that first principle to preserve traditional rivals.'