A little stat illumination (maybe)

I'm not sure what this post says or where it might go. I'd love to find a few stats outside of turnovers that say something about the game, maybe spot a trend or two.

I'll be doing a little of that in a few posts this week and next. I don't believe there are any eurekas here, but a few trends poke through. A little illumination more than anything else.

One that stood out, off the top of my head, Iowa has been darn good on defense the last five years compared to Wisconsin.

So, what are you looking at?

This being an Iowa football blog, I picked Iowa. Then, I thought let's check out the Big Ten gold standard, Ohio State. I thought Wisconsin would be a great measure against the Hawkeyes for these numbers. Then, Iowa State because Iowa and ISU meet every season.

The first group of numbers are points per play from 2006-10. The second is margin of points scored vs. points allowed, also from 2006-10.

Let's see what we see. (PS -- Got the stats for the other Big Ten schools and ISU from cfbstats.com. Excellent site.)

2010 -- .466

2009 -- .355

2008 -- .471

2007 -- .272

2006 -- .362

Some notes: Ricky Stanzi was QB for three of these seasons, Jake Christensen one and Drew Tate one (though he missed a game in 2006 with the thumb). The number of offensive plays Iowa has run every season is remarkably consistent. The low is 806 last season and the high is 855 is 2006. So, Iowa will run 800 to 850 offensive plays in 2011. Iowa's offense bottomed out in 2007 with 222 total points. I can't find it, but I think the Big Ten Network did a Keystone Cops send-up on the '07 Iowa O going into 2008 spring practice. The high for Iowa scoring was 2008 with 394 points. You're going to walk away from this wondering how '08 lost four games. That team was outstanding, championship caliber. Iowa will have ups and downs, that's part of Iowa's Iowa-ness and Kirk Ferentz has acknowledged as much in the past.

2010 -- .562

2009 -- .428

2008 -- .444

2007 -- .462

2006 -- .548

Some notes: The .500 is national championship range. The Buckeyes played in the BCS title game. Last year's team was No. 1 for one week. Say what you want about QB Terrelle Pryor, he was productive. The Buckeyes ran 896 offensive plays and scored 504 points last season and won a share of the Big Ten (for the sixth straight season). So, the .400 number puts you in that sort of territory. 

2010 -- .626

2009 -- .448

2008 -- .396

2007 -- .410

2006 -- .435

Some notes:Wisconsin had a national championship-caliber offense last season and fell short on defense. The 500-point barrier is Big Ten championship-worthy as UW's 539 points from last season show. Wisconsin's lowest point total the last five years was 357. The Badgers have been more of an offense-first school (compared to Iowa's D-first). The Badgers were more big play last season and still ran 860 offensive plays, their lowest total. Wisconsin routinely runs 900-plus offensive plays a season. That's ball control, that's muscle. 

2010 -- .314

2009 -- .297

2008 -- .361

2007 -- .243

2006 -- .290

Some notes:It's noteworthy that ISU has had three coaches during this stretch (Dan McCarney's last season was '06), so that's a lot of transition. Second, ISU has had better stretches of football in recent years. There's only one bowl team from this sample. The '08 team was 2-10 and the Cyclones posted their best number here. The 2009 Cyclones won the Insight Bowl and finished 7-6. OK, the real number you're interested in (if you're still with me), what's this number the last five years in Iowa State-Iowa? The Cyclones points per play is .198. ISU has scored just 47 points against Iowa the last five seasons. Iowa's number is .398. This is part of why Iowa is 4-1 the last five seasons against ISU.

Wisconsin head coach Bret Bielema is congratulated after the Badgers beat Iowa after their game at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 23, 2010, in Iowa City. Wisconsin won, 31-30. (Jim Slosiarek/SourceMedia Group News)

2010 -- 376/221 = +155

2009 -- 301/200 = +101

2008 -- 394/169 = +225

2007 -- 222/225 = -3

2006 -- 310/269 = +41

Some notes:See? How didn't 2008 Iowa win a share of the Big Ten? Well, we know, QB struggles early and bad turnovers and some bad fortune. That 2009 offense, just enough to get it done. You'll see after reading numbers from Ohio State and Wisconsin that Iowa's defense the last five seasons stacks up with any in the conference. There is some talk of a shift in philosophy, but the numbers don't bear that out, even in the face of a schedule that loses UW and OSU and picks up Nebraska and Purdue (more spread-ish types). Here's an essay on the topic from Black Heart Gold Pants. I think the big shift ("shift") is smaller, faster linebackers and that's it. But we'll see. It's 71 days and counting. Made the Big Ten media days hotel reservations today. We are in the chute.

2010 -- 504/186 = +318

2009 -- 377/163 = +214

2008 -- 359/181 = +178

2007 -- 408/166 = +242

2006 -- 450/166 = +284

Some notes: These are the numbers of a consistent Big Ten champion. Not once in the last five seasons has Ohio State allowed 200 points. Plus-200 puts you in the Big Ten title conversation. The plus-300 looks a whole lot better without the blowout in Madison. Otherwise, these are the numbers of a well-rounded national-title contender. Striking offense and bullish defense. The numbers are honest, which make the current goings on in Columbus all the more regrettable.

2010 -- 539/267 = +272

2009 -- 413/283 = +130

2008 -- 357/345 = +12

2007 -- 383/301 = +82

2006 -- 378/157 = +221

Some notes: The Badgers can O with anyone, but haven't been able to back it up on D. Two seasons of 300-plus points against count against Wisconsin's D, which should be better this season with LB Chris Borland back from shoulder surgery. Coincidentally, the Badgers' best defensive season going off this number was 2006, when they went 12-1 under then-first year coach Bret Bielema. Last season's team showed the strength of a good O and just enough D, kind of like Iowa's 2009. Of course, special teams mean something, as Iowa can attest with the '10 result (31-30 UW, best Big Ten game of 2010). I'll get to special teams in another post.

2010 -- 260/346 = -86

2009 -- 267/284 = -17

2008 -- 304/430 = -126

2007 -- 218/381 = -163

2006 -- 226/369 = -143

Some notes: Again, transition speaks to the numbers here. But the Big 12 is a high-octane conference prone to the shootout. I think that shines through here as well. The Cyclones' best season (7-6 in 2009) is reflected by these numbers. I covered ISU in 1998 and remember Dan McCarney's lament was finding consistently good defensive personnel. McCarney played and coached defense and he knew the Cyclones weren't going to enjoy success unless the defense improved. ISU had it going and should have it close to going soon. Head coach Paul Rhoads has roots in defense and DC Wally Burnham is Norm Parker west when the personnel meets the scheme. The last five season's number for Iowa-ISU? The Hawkeyes have outscored ISU 127-47, so Iowa is plus-80 and ISU minus-80.