Which bowl games are possible for Iowa football in 2023

IOWA CITY — With two regular season games and possibly the Big Ten championship game remaining, Iowa football has a few tasks at hand before it can worry about bowl possibilities.

But for everyone outside of the Iowa football facility, it’s getting clearer by the week which bowls are (and are not) realistic destinations for the Hawkeyes.

The Big Ten has ties with the Citrus Bowl, ReliaQuest Bowl, Music City Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl, Guaranteed Rate Bowl and Quick Lane Bowl.

A couple disclaimers are necessary when looking at bowl possibilities at this point in the year:

With that being said, here are the Hawkeyes’ possibilities, broken down in order of prestige:

New Year’s Six bowls

Dates: Dec. 29-Jan. 1 (locations vary)

A two-loss Iowa team, especially with the weakness of its schedule, obviously does not have a path to the College Football Playoff.

A spot in one of the non-CFP New Year’s Six bowls is unlikely, but technically not impossible for the Hawkeyes.

If Iowa pulls off an improbable upset in the Big Ten championship game, it would earn a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl. Otherwise, Iowa may need some serious help from other teams losing to climb from No. 22 to the top 12 in the next few weeks.

Kansas State was ranked No. 19 at this time last year in the College Football Playoff rankings, yet rose to No. 9 and earned a spot in the Sugar Bowl. But that ascent followed a win over a TCU in the Big 12 championship game.

Citrus Bowl

Date: Jan. 1

Location: Orlando

Conference affiliations: Big Ten vs. SEC

As the Big Ten West front-runner, the Citrus Bowl appears to be a likely destination for the Hawkeyes. The Big Ten West champion has gone to Orlando in each of the last three seasons. There are a couple key factors that will determine whether that trend continues.

One is what happens to Penn State.

The only question for undefeated No. 1 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan is practically whether they go to the CFP or a New Year’s Six game. The fate of Penn State is not so certain.

The Nittany Lions were ranked No. 10 in last week’s CFP rankings before they suffered their second loss of the season to Michigan. They fired their offensive coordinator following the loss.

If Penn State slips out of New Year’s Six consideration, the Citrus Bowl would be the most logical destination for the Nittany Lions.

The other key factor is how Citrus Bowl executives feel about inviting a team that had just been there two years earlier.

Big Ten bowl procedures allow Iowa to go back to Orlando, but the Citrus Bowl must select at least five different Big Ten teams during its six-year agreement.

Therefore, if Iowa goes there this year, the Citrus Bowl would not be able to pick Iowa, Purdue or Northwestern in either of the next two seasons.

At least one Citrus Bowl representative attended Iowa’s games against Penn State, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Minnesota. That is not saying much considering how many games the Citrus Bowl scouts on a weekly basis, however.

On the weekend of Sept. 30, for example, the Citrus Bowl had representatives at 11 different Big Ten or SEC games.

ReliaQuest Bowl

Date: Jan. 1

Location: Tampa, Fla.

Conference affiliations: Big Ten/SEC vs. ACC

The ReliaQuest Bowl, which was previously known as the Outback Bowl, would be next on the Big Ten bowl pecking order.

Whether a trip to Tampa is an option for Iowa largely depends on what happens with the Orange Bowl. If a Big Ten team goes to the Orange Bowl, the conference’s spot in the ReliaQuest Bowl then goes to the SEC.

That is a significant obstacle this year. The Rose Bowl is a CFP semifinal game this year, so that leaves the Orange Bowl as the designated spot for a Big Ten (or SEC) team that misses the CFP.

A ReliaQuest Bowl representative attended Iowa’s Nov. 4 game at Northwestern. Considering the Wildcats’ 4-4 record at the time, Iowa was more likely the team that made the trip worthwhile.

Recency would not be a problem considering the Hawkeyes’ last trip to Tampa was in 2018. Iowa’s last Outback Bowl appearance was five years after the one before it.

Las Vegas Bowl

Date: Dec. 23

Location: Las Vegas

Conference affiliations: Big Ten vs. Pac-12

The Las Vegas Bowl was a more popular place for bowl prognosticators to project Iowa about a month ago than it is now. Iowa’s last two wins — combined with Minnesota, Wisconsin and Nebraska’s recent losing skids — have now made the Citrus Bowl a more frequent projection for the Hawkeyes.

But the factors working against Iowa with the Citrus Bowl and ReliaQuest Bowl still leave the Las Vegas Bowl as a possibility.

The most notable scenario where the Hawkeyes could end up in Vegas would be if Ohio State or Michigan goes to the CFP, the other team goes to the Orange Bowl and Penn State goes to the Citrus Bowl.

If Iowa remains available when it is time for the Las Vegas Bowl to invite a Big Ten team, it would certainly be surprising to see bowl organizers pass on the Hawkeyes.

Other bowls

The Big Ten also has ties to the Pinstripe Bowl in New York, Guaranteed Rate Bowl in Phoenix and the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit. However, all three are unlikely landing spots for an Iowa team that already has eight wins.

It would likely mean, depending on which teams go to the CFP or New Year’s Six games, that bowls chose six or seven Big Ten schools over the Hawkeyes.

Even in the unlikely scenario that Iowa loses its next two games, Iowa’s strong fan support could make the Hawkeyes a more appealing choice than a team with a better record.

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com