What’s possible for Iowa football in postseason after ‘deflating’ loss to Michigan State

EAST LANSING, Mich. — There is no sugarcoating Iowa football’s 32-20 loss to Michigan State.

Tight end Luke Lachey called it “deflating.” Quarterback Cade McNamara used the word “humbling.” Running back Kaleb Johnson described it as a “wake-up call.”

“But we just got to move forward,” Lachey said shortly after the Saturday night loss. “This one’s over. We’ll talk about it tomorrow and get back together there and regroup and move forward onto the next one.”

As the Hawkeyes move forward, they clearly left behind one thing in East Lansing — any path to the 12-team College Football Playoff.

Already with two losses and no remaining games against ranked opponents before Saturday’s disaster, a CFP berth already was the longest of long shots for the 2024 Hawkeyes.

Now, what once was believed to be a “very realistic goal for this team” — at least within the football building — is virtually impossible for Iowa.

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Hawkeyes a 0.1 percent chance of making the CFP. None of the 61 voters in the AP Poll had Iowa on their ballots this week. None of the 53 voters in the Coaches Poll voted for Iowa either.

A trip to the Big Ten championship game is similarly out of the picture for Iowa, which now is in a six-way tie for seventh place in the conference standings.

The last time a team finished in the top 12 of the CFP rankings with fewer than 10 wins, excluding the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season, was the 9-3 Auburn Tigers in 2019.

That 2019 Auburn team had wins over then-No. 11 Oregon and then-No. 5 Alabama. Iowa, on the other hand, has not defeated a ranked team in more than three years.

Also, 9-3 is the absolute best-case scenario for Iowa, which had a reminder this weekend of what not to take for granted against an underdog like Michigan State.

Now with five games left in the 2024 season, the Hawkeyes can realistically only hope for a favorable bowl invitation at this point.

The Citrus Bowl is off the table because of Iowa’s trip there last year. The ReliaQuest Bowl, formerly known as the Outback Bowl, is next in the Big Ten pecking order.

Iowa has the advantage of not having been to Tampa, Fla., since the 2018 season. But other high-profile programs could be vying for that bowl invitation, including potentially Michigan.

The Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte is next on the list. (Yes, that’s the one where the winning coach gets dumped with a mayo bath.) The Music City Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl, Rate Bowl and the newly-renamed Game Above Sports Bowl round out the list of Big Ten-affiliated bowls.

ESPN’s Mark Schlabach projects Iowa to face Syracuse in the Pinstripe Bowl. ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura is more optimistic, projecting a trip to the ReliaQuest Bowl against Ole Miss.

Regardless of whether the 2024 Hawkeyes experience the Tampa sunshine or a Kirk Ferentz mayo bath, it will be a far cry from what once seemed possible for them.

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com

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