Iowa’s Jay Higgins, Nick Jackson will test how much NFL teams value college production

IOWA CITY — Kirk Ferentz is quite the fan of former NFL executive Bill Polian’s radio segments.

“I love Tuesday mornings because he’s on the radio,” Ferentz said. “In fact, I might even drive to Des Moines just to keep listening to him.”

So when Polian recited statistics about the low success rate of NFL draft picks, even in the first round, it stuck with the longtime Iowa head football coach.

“His point was if you can hit .550, then you're going to be a Hall-of-Fame GM,” Ferentz said. “It’s unpredictable.”

Two of Ferentz’s former players — linebackers Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson — could be a litmus test for how much NFL teams value college production versus predraft measurements amid the imperfect process of predraft evaluations.

Higgins tied Iowa’s single-season record for total tackles in 2023 and then was a unanimous All-American in 2024 (after leading the team with 124 total tackles and four interceptions). Jackson, meanwhile, has received varying levels of all-conference recognition in each of the last five seasons while working in four different defensive schemes.

Those accomplishments have not translated to predraft hype, however.

Jackson did not receive an invitation to this year’s NFL Combine. Players without combine invitations still have other opportunities to meet with NFL teams — Jackson estimated he has met with 25 or 26 teams so far — but it does turn getting drafted into more of an uphill climb.

“I don’t want to discredit anybody there, but it was very surprising to see Nick not on the list (at the combine),” Higgins said. “You got some brand-name schools. That thing still exists.”

Jackson at least benefited from good numbers at Iowa’s pro day. He reported a 4.65-second 40-yard dash, 34.5-inch vertical jump, 3.99-second 20-yard shuttle run and “high 6.8” in the three-cone drill.

Higgins earned a combine invitation, but his measurements in Indianapolis hardly jumped off the charts. His 4.82-second 40-yard dash, 1.64-second 10-yard split and 9-foot-2 broad jump all ranked last among linebackers invited to Indianapolis. The bright spot was his linebacker-best 7.01-second three-cone drill.

“You've got the measurables and all that stuff, and that is important, it's a gauge,” Ferentz said. “But my experience is a lot of times people will use those numbers either to justify their argument for a player or against him, either way, depends on how they want to argue it.”

Many of the predraft prognostications — hardly representative of how NFL teams feel, but what’s available publicly — are not arguing in favor of the Hawkeye linebackers. Pro Football Focus ranks Higgins 213th overall in this year’s draft class, and PFF does not rank Jackson at all.

ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. did not include Higgins or Jackson in his rankings of the top 10 prospects at each position. His ESPN colleague Matt Miller projected Higgins to be a seventh-round pick and Jackson to go undrafted in his seven-round mock draft released this week.

Jackson said his pitch to NFL teams is being an “all-around productive player.”

“The tape is the tape,” Jackson said. “I’ve been productive at all three levels of the game — whether it’s been getting in the backfield, TFLs, sacks; whether it’s getting my hands on the ball, PBUs, whether it’s been just straight up tackles.”

Jackson’s 555 career tackles were the second-most in FBS history. In 2022, the then-Virginia linebacker led the ACC and ranked ninth across the FBS with 10.4 tackles per game.

Higgins and Jackson will find out in about a month just how much value those numbers carry with NFL scouts. If they don’t hear good news, Polian’s radio segments at least offer a silver lining.

“Those guys spend a lot of money, invest a lot of money, invest a lot of time in the draft process, and they have a lot more information and access to stuff than we do when we recruit,” Ferentz said. “Yet they still can't get it right every time. It's impossible.”

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com

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