Iowa football mailbag: How likely is a 10-win season in 2024?

This is a portion of this week’s Hawk Off The Press mailbag with reader-submitted questions, including about Iowa’s spot in the final AP Top 25 and expectations for the 2024 season.

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How do the Hawkeyes end the year ranked in the AP Poll when they didn’t score a point against ranked teams?

It was interesting looking at the wide range of opinions from Associated Press voters on where to rank the Hawkeyes. A few ranked Iowa as high as No. 17. Many voters left Iowa off their ballots entirely. Iowa ended up at No. 24.

After a 35-point shutout loss to a Tennessee team that was ravaged by injuries, opt-outs and transfers, I had a hard time picturing Iowa as one of the top 25 college football teams this season. The Hawks were not truly competitive in any of their three games against ranked opponents.

At the same time, there are only 18 Power Five teams (including independent Notre Dame) who won 10 games. If you don’t rank Iowa, are you instead taking an 8-5 Oregon State team that lost by 32 points in the Sun Bowl? Or are you taking a 9-4 West Virginia team that also was blown out in its two opportunities against ranked opponents? Or the 11-3 Tulane team that lost both games against Power Five foes by three possessions?

Losing a generational punter and looking at the 2024 schedule, how likely is it that Iowa will attain 10 wins?

The road to 10 wins will undoubtedly be harder in 2024. There were three Big Ten teams who finished in the top 10 of the College Football Playoff rankings, and Iowa only had to play one in the regular season. Next year, the Hawkeyes will face Ohio State and Washington in back-to-back weeks. UCLA had a down year this year, but that is not necessarily an easy road game either.

If Iowa’s offense improves drastically under the direction of a new offensive coordinator, the defense should be strong enough that 10 wins would very much be attainable. But if the offense looks like how it did this year, a 10th win would require quite a bit of good fortune (possibly including a favorable bowl matchup).

As for losing a generational punter, it is no easy feat to replace Tory Taylor. Rhys Dakin has the potential to be another special punter, though.

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com