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Iowa football 2024 early opponent preview: Illinois State
Redbirds have exceeded 6 wins only once since 2016
Editor’s note: First article in a 12-part series previewing each of Iowa’s 2024 regular-season opponents.
IOWA CITY — Early signs point toward Iowa football drawing a favorable schedule in the Big Ten’s first season with 18 teams and no divisions.
ESPN’s preseason Football Power Index, while not a perfect metric, rated Iowa’s strength of schedule 17th out of 18 teams in the Big Ten. (Only Rutgers appears to have a more favorable 2024 slate.)
Yes, Iowa does have a date with an Ohio State team that should be dominant again in 2024. But the Hawkeyes avoided Oregon, Michigan, Penn State and USC. Washington is on the schedule, but the Huskies lost their head coach and significant portions of the roster after their College Football Playoff appearance.
The Hawkeyes’ first game of the season likely will not boost any strength-of-schedule metrics. They face FCS-level Illinois State on Aug. 31 at Kinnick Stadium.
The Redbirds are coming off a 6-5 season in 2023 and have won seven-plus games only once since 2016. Their last win against an FBS team was in 2018 against Colorado State. It has been nine years since 16th-year head coach Brock Spack led Illinois State to back-to-back Missouri Valley Football Conference titles in 2014 and 2015.
Two of Iowa’s last three games against FCS foes were close — a 7-3 win over South Dakota State in 2022 and a 23-21 loss to North Dakota State in 2016. The exception was Iowa’s 38-14 win over Northern Iowa in 2018.
The two FCS teams who recently kept it close with (or defeated) the Hawkeyes had more success than what Illinois State has recently experienced, however.
The 2016 North Dakota State team that beat the Hawkeyes was coming off an FCS national championship and went on to a 12-2 season. The 2022 South Dakota State team did not lose another game on its way to winning an FCS national championship.
Here is a closer look at Iowa’s season opener, which looms 82 days away:
Iowa vs. Illinois State: 3 things to watch
- The season opener will offer the first in-game glimpse of Iowa’s new offensive scheme under new offensive coordinator Tim Lester. We have heard about the Hawkeyes’ scheme emulating the Green Bay Packers’ scheme under Matt LaFleur. We’ll see it in action on Aug. 31.
- Jake Rubley vs. Iowa’s secondary. Rubley was a four-star recruit out of West Des Moines Valley who passed on an offer from his home-state Hawkeyes in favor of Kansas State. After three years as a backup at Kansas State, he transferred to Illinois State. Incumbent quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse could also see playing time.
- Does Cade McNamara look like his 2021 self? This will be the key question for the Hawkeyes throughout the season. Fortunately for the former CFP starter, Illinois State provides a relatively easy on-ramp for what will be his first game in 11 months. The Redbirds allowed their FCS opponents to complete 64.5 percent of their passes last season.
2024 prognosis
Iowa has not lost to an FCS opponent since 2016. That is unlikely to change this year against the Redbirds.
Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com
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