How NCAA’s roster limits could affect Iowa football in 2025 and beyond

IOWA CITY — Future roster sizes understandably did not seem to be the top thing on Kirk Ferentz’s mind last month at Big Ten football media days.

“Until we really have a better idea of what it’s going to look like, I don’t want to burn too much energy on it or waste too many brain cells,” the Iowa coach said in Indianapolis.

At that point, the documents for the House vs. NCAA lawsuit settlement — the thing prompting the NCAA to institute roster limits — had not officially been filed yet. The changes don’t take effect either until 2025-26, and the NCAA is not immune from future litigation in the meantime.

Since the formal filing of the settlement documents, though, the post-House reality of collegiate athletics is becoming clearer.

Current athletes can receive direct compensation from schools starting in 2025-26, with the cap expected to be north of $20 million per year. Some former athletes will receive NIL backpay. And lastly, each sport will have roster limits instead of scholarship limits.

For football, the limit will be 105 players.

Here is how that last aspect of the upcoming changes could affect the Hawkeyes in 2025 and beyond:

Impending roster cuts

The Hawkeyes have 131 players on their active roster as the 2024 season approaches.

They will need to be down to 105 at this time next year. The path to reach that number — a decrease of 26 players or roughly 20 percent of the roster — almost inevitably will involve some difficult decisions.

Subtract the 22 players who are seniors (or fifth or sixth-year guys) this year, and Iowa gets to 109. Then add Iowa’s 13 commitments from 2025 scholarship-level recruits (along with a 14th from preferred walk-on quarterback Ryan Fitzgerald), and Iowa would be up to 123.

The predescribed hypothetical scenario — one that still leaves Iowa 18 players above the roster limit — does not account for the seniors on this year’s team who could still use their extra COVID-19 year of eligibility in 2025. It also does not account for any additional 2025 recruits who could later commit to the Hawkeyes.

Any transfer portal departures will help in whittling down the roster count, but barring a massive transfer exodus, Iowa surely will need to cut some players from the roster.

The upcoming roster limit replaces the current system of scholarship limits. Iowa unofficially has 88 scholarship-level players on the roster — three above the 85-man limit — but there are ways to work around the scholarship cap, including NIL compensation. A hard roster cap does not allow for that same leniency.

Shrinking path for walk-ons

Iowa has quite the track record of finding walk-ons who develop into key players by the end of their Hawkeye careers.

Safety Quinn Schulte, offensive lineman Nick DeJong and linebacker Kyler Fisher are current examples. Others in recent history include defensive end Joe Evans and safety Jack Koerner.

The days of having 40-plus walk-ons are numbered, though.

While the upcoming roster changes do not eliminate the walk-on pipeline entirely — 105 still leaves 20 that would not have been on scholarship under the current model — it is a much narrower pipeline.

As the roster shrinks from 130-plus to 105 in 2025, that will mean 20-plus fewer opportunities for undervalued talent to do what Schulte, Evans and others have done in the past.

All 105 on scholarship? Not necessarily

The new set of rules will open the door for schools to potentially put all 105 football players on scholarship instead of the current 85. Schools are under no obligation to go up to the full 105, though.

“Probably every school is going to have a different perspective on it,” Ferentz said last month at Big Ten media days. “I don’t know that we can go out and find 100 guys although maybe we can because the other schools won’t be able to take as many players.”

Adding football scholarships — unless they are at the expense of men’s nonrevenue sports — would carry an obvious cost for Iowa Athletics at a time when schools also must navigate direct athlete compensation.

Iowa athletics director Beth Goetz said last month at Big Ten media days that “every dollar that we put into the system is going to need to have a clear ROI (return on investment).”

Goetz added that the ROI could be in the form of “how is it going to impact winning” and “how is it going to help them graduate and be good young men and women.”

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com

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