How far Iowa football is from eventually being in College Football Playoff

IOWA CITY — The epicenter of the top tier of college football this weekend has been on the campuses of Penn State, Texas, Ohio State and (a very snowy) Notre Dame.

That’s where the first four College Football Playoff games unfolded on Friday night and throughout the day on Saturday. A few months ago, a similar scene at Iowa’s Kinnick Stadium was not entirely unfathomable.

Since-departed quarterback Cade McNamara — a team captain for most of the year — ahead of the season said a berth in the 12-team CFP was a “very realistic goal for this team.” One could easily see why McNamara was so optimistic, too.

After all, Iowa had 19 returning starters, a new-and-improved offensive scheme and a relatively favorable schedule. (Iowa had to play only one of the Big Ten’s four eventual CFP teams.) But four losses — including to non-bowl-eligible Michigan State and UCLA — dashed any hope of this being a ranked team, let alone a CFP team.

So how far are the Hawkeyes from a situation like their Big Ten peers in Columbus or State College? They check many of the theoretical boxes to be an eventual CFP contender.

If a 12-team CFP existed for all 26 of Kirk Ferentz’s seasons at the helm, Iowa would have been a playoff team four times (based on BCS rankings from 1999-2013 and CFP rankings since 2014).

Iowa has the proven track record when it comes to player development. The Hawkeyes are one of four programs across the country this year to have multiple consensus All-Americans, joining Texas, Ohio State and Miami (Fla.). Iowa also has had at least one consensus All-American in six consecutive seasons.

The Hawkeyes’ combined 89-38 record (.701) over the last 10 seasons ranks fourth among the 14 teams that were in the Big Ten during that entire span, trailing only Ohio State (.874), Michigan (.762) and Penn State (.724). Ohio State and Penn State are in the CFP this year, and Michigan won the whole thing last year.

But there also are signs of a possibly growing distance between Iowa and the top tier of college football — the tier with a CFP ceiling instead of a Citrus Bowl ceiling.

Even with the four hypothetical situations where Iowa would be in a 12-team CFP, the most recent case was in 2015 — when most of Iowa’s current incoming freshmen were 9 years old.

The biggest warning sign is Iowa’s lack of competitiveness against top-tier opponents. In 2023, it could quite possibly have been the difference between finishing No. 17 in the final CFP rankings and somewhere in the No. 9-12 range.

Iowa has lost eight consecutive games against ranked opponents, including three shutout losses in 2023. Iowa has been outscored, 181-17, in its last five games against ranked foes.

In Iowa’s 2021 and 2023 trips to the Big Ten title game — both because of winning the not-so-top-heavy Big Ten West rather than being the second-best team in the league — the Hawkeyes suffered 42-3 and 26-0 losses.

The expanded 12-team playoff field does afford some teams second (and maybe even third) chances. But 11 of this year’s 12 CFP teams had at least one ranked win on their resumes, and many had at least two ranked wins.

Indiana was the only team to make the 12-team CFP this year without a ranked win on its resume, and Iowa does not appear to have an Indiana-esque schedule any time in the near future.

Three current CFP teams are on Iowa’s 2025 schedule — Indiana, Penn State and Oregon. (The one consolation is all three games are at Kinnick Stadium.) Iowa State will not be a team to overlook either after the Cyclones were one game away from being a CFP team. The trip to USC could come with a few challenges, too.

Looking farther ahead at 2026, Ohio State is the only Big Ten opponent that is in this year’s CFP field. But give it another two years, and 2023 CFP teams Michigan and Washington are more likely to be farther along in their respective rebuilds.

In the meantime, Kinnick Stadium lacks the CFP environment (and the snowman-making weather) that its upper-Midwest peer in South Bend has enjoyed this weekend.

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com

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