'Great test’ looms for Iowa football against heavily-favored Ohio State

IOWA CITY — After visiting Kinnick Stadium for then-No. 3 Iowa’s 23-20 win over then-No. 4 Penn State last year as a recruit, Kaleb Johnson believes “anybody can beat anybody.”

Iowa was a 2.5-point favorite in that football game, but Johnson’s philosophy applies to underdogs, too.

“I like coming in as an underdog and people not believing in us,” the freshman running back said. “I love proving people wrong.”

Johnson’s desired scenario is happening again with Iowa’s trip to No. 2 Ohio State. It’s not the first time Iowa has been the underdog — it happened against Michigan and Illinois as well — but it’s certainly the most dramatic spread of the season.

The Hawkeyes (3-3, 1-2) opened as 28-point underdogs and now are 29-point underdogs against the Buckeyes (6-0, 3-0).

“A couple people have said it, but again, I think it’s irrelevant,” Iowa defensive lineman Logan Lee said about the point spread. “Ultimately, we’ll find out after the game.”

Iowa’s 55-24 win in 2017 over then-No. 3 Ohio State was an example of the “anybody can beat anybody” mantra working, but that was under a significantly different set of circumstances.

The Hawkeyes were averaging 25 points per game going into that matchup rather than the 2022 team’s 14.7 points per game. It also was at a rowdy Kinnick Stadium rather than a hostile Ohio Stadium.

Iowa has the benefit of coming off a bye week, but so does Ohio State.

An Iowa defense that prides itself on limiting big plays — defensive coordinator Phil Parker rattled off the numbers of “big” plays and “chunk” plays during his bye-week news conference with ease — will be up against an Ohio State offense that thrives on making big, explosive plays.

“It’s going to be a great test for our defense,” linebacker Jay Higgins said.

Ohio State is second at the FBS level with 543.7 yards per game and first with 48.8 points per game.

Its quarterback, C.J. Stroud, was a finalist last year for the Heisman Trophy and is projected to be one of the top picks in next year’s NFL Draft, if not No. 1.

With the help of an offensive line that Iowa Coach Kirk Ferentz believes is “probably as big as we've seen,” the Buckeyes are averaging 6.0 yards per carry.

Parker, an Ohio native, is well aware of the danger of Ohio State’s offense.

“They're going to motion and shift and trade,” Parker said. “They have athletes that they can get the ball to, a dynamic quarterback that can get the ball to them. They have good running backs. They have a good offensive line.”

A much larger disparity exists on the other side of the ball.

Iowa’s offense is 131st out of 131 teams in yards per game and 127th in points per game. Ohio State’s defense is fifth in yards allowed per game and 10th in points allowed per game.

Ferentz said there’s “no pixie dust” for improving the offense.

“There's no way I know of, at least, to getting better other than just working at it,” Ferentz said.

The Ohio State game will kick off the second half of the season for Iowa, which must go 3-3 or better to be bowl eligible. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Hawkeyes a 63.7 percent chance of that happening.

The margin for error is slim. ESPN’s FPI only has Iowa favored in three games, and the odds of a win over Wisconsin are 51.3 percent.

“People on the outside may think it’s the end of the season, it’s the end of the world,” safety Kaevon Merriweather said. “The season isn’t over with. We can still compete.”

CBS Sports does not project Iowa to go to a bowl game, although some outlets have recently projected Iowa going to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte or Guaranteed Rate Bowl in Phoenix.

The only game Iowa players are thinking about, though — or at least the only game they’re trying to think about — has odds far less radiant than the December weather in Phoenix.

“If we lose, then you got to come back in here ready to work and move forward,” Johnson said. “Can you move forward?”

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com