Data analysis: Similar problems, ‘no magic answers’ for Iowa’s offense through four games

IOWA CITY — Asked in the spring what was going to be different in 2023 to avoid a third consecutive season of subpar results, beleaguered Iowa offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz had a straightforward answer.

“We’re going to do the same things we do,” Ferentz told The Gazette in an April news conference. “We’re going to do it better.”

One-third of the way through the 2023 regular season, as the Hawkeyes do the “same things” they’ve done in past years, they have not been doing it much better.

Iowa’s 246 yards per game, if continued over the course of an entire season, would be the lowest in the Kirk Ferentz era. The same applies to its 50.5 percent completion rate despite the addition of Michigan transfer quarterback Cade McNamara.

Nationally, Iowa ranks 100th or worse out of 133 FBS teams in third-down conversion percentage, completion percentage, points per game and yards per game.

The Hawkeyes’ yards per play are up from 4.24 last year to 4.5 so far this year, but they still rank 127th out of 133 teams.

Kirk Ferentz downplayed some of the offense’s less-than-optimal statistics in his weekly Tuesday news conference.

“I'm not minimizing stats at all, don't misread this,” Ferentz said when asked about wide receiver targets, “but the biggest thing we're trying — the only stat we're focused on is winning games.”

But a lack of yards per play — at least at the extreme Iowa is flirting with — often does not translate to success for college football teams in Ferentz’s most important statistic.

Six teams averaged fewer than 4.5 yards per play last season, and Iowa was the only program to have a record better than 4-8. There were seven teams with 4.5 or fewer yards per play in 2021, and all seven were 4-8 or worse.

Wide receivers not involved

A particularly glaring problem with the 2023 offense is the lack of involvement of the Hawkeyes’ wide receivers — a position group boosted with additions from the transfer portal.

The wideouts have combined to record 14 receptions for 148 yards in the first third of the season, which average out to 3.5 receptions for 37 yards per game.

Fourteen Big Ten players have more receptions than Iowa’s entire wide receiver room, and 24 have more receiving yards than Iowa’s entire wide receiver room.

Iowa’s 31 targets to wide receivers, per a Gazette analysis of Pro Football Focus data, are the third-fewest in the FBS. The only schools with fewer targets are service academies, namely Air Force and Navy.

The only other Power Five program with fewer than 50 wide receiver targets is Nebraska with 49.

Asked about the lack of wide receiver targets, McNamara said he is “just the quarterback.”

“I’m not calling the plays or doing any of that,” McNamara said. “That’s not my decision. I’m just going to run the plays, and I’m going to throw it to the open guy.”

It is not just a matter of not throwing to wide receivers enough. When Iowa’s quarterbacks do throw to wide receivers, the results have not been pretty.

The Hawkeyes have completed only 45.2 percent of passes targeted for wide receivers, according to a Gazette analysis of PFF data. Navy and Pittsburgh are the only schools to be less efficient than the Hawkeyes in that regard.

The lack of wide receiver production can have short- and long-term consequences for the Hawkeyes.

Short-term, defenses can focus more on Iowa’s tight ends and potentially leave wide receivers in one-on-one coverage more often.

Long-term, it can be a negative recruiting tool for other Power Five schools recruiting against Iowa for wide receivers. Iowa’s 2023 recruiting class included wide receivers who also had offers from Wisconsin, Kansas State, Duke, Boston College, Cincinnati and/or others.

Winning those recruiting battles already was hard enough before this season.

“If you’re the type of guy that’s driven by stats, touches, targets, highlights, that types of accolades, personal awards, this ain’t the place for you,” Iowa wide receivers coach Kelton Copeland said last year. “It’s just not, because quite frankly, you’re probably not going to get the targets that you think you should get. … Every receiver thinks that he’s open every play.”

Now, those battles could be even harder, all while Iowa competes in an extra-competitive, expanded Big Ten in 2024 and beyond.

No ‘magic answers’

Iowa’s plan for offensive improvement is to “just try to get better in every phase,” Kirk Ferentz said.

“There's no magic answers,” Ferentz said. “See what we can do to just improve in each and every phase.”

Any discussion of a change in either offensive play caller or scheme “not part of the plan.”

“I think you just stay the course and focus on improvement,” Ferentz said. “It's kind of what we've done. We've been in situations after four games where we've had a loss or two losses, and things turned out OK.”

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com