Analyzing Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara’s performance through first 5 games of 2024

IOWA CITY — With three second-half turnovers, Cade McNamara had some undeniable shortcomings in Iowa football’s 35-7 loss to Ohio State.

“The things that were obvious that didn't go well Saturday, my sister probably could tell you,” Iowa Coach Kirk Ferentz said while talking about his starting quarterback. “Turning the ball over, and then certainly the pick. That was just a bad mental play on his part. That was the most disappointing play in my mind.”

Aside from the three second-half turnovers, though, Ferentz also saw “a lot of good things, too.”

“I would venture to say he played a pretty good half in the first half,” Ferentz said. “He was efficient, and I made that comment I think after the Minnesota game that he seemed more comfortable, more decisive in his play.”

As optimistic as Ferentz is about McNamara almost at the halfway point of the season — Saturday’s game against Washington will be Iowa’s sixth of 12 regular-season games — data from McNamara’s first five games show a couple potential warning signs.

Why Cade McNamara’s completion percentage can be deceptive

McNamara has completed 63.9 percent of his passes so far this season. That is significantly better than Deacon Hill’s 48.6 percent last year, Spencer Petras’ 55.9 percent in 2022 and Petras’ 57.3 percent in 2021. In fact, Iowa has not completed more than 60 percent of its passes in a full season since 2015.

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That metric can be deceptive, though, considering how many of McNamara’s passes are shorter, theoretically higher-percentage throws.

McNamara’s average depth of target is 6.7 yards, according to PFF. That’s the second-shortest distance among the 15 Big Ten quarterbacks with at least 120 dropbacks this season. (Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel has an average depth of target of 6.5 yards, but he also has completed 76.9 percent of his passes instead.)

McNamara’s 8.8 passing yards per completion ranks 119th out of 120 qualifying FBS quarterbacks, and his 5.6 passing yards per attempt ranks 114th out of 120 qualifying FBS quarterbacks. Both figures are at the bottom of the Big Ten.

Weaker results against Power Four competition

McNamara’s numbers have been substantially worse against teams from Power Four conferences than against teams from lower-tier conferences.

McNamara against lower-tier competition (Illinois State and Troy): 40-of-54 (74.1 percent), 427 yards, three touchdowns, no turnovers

McNamara against Power Four competition (Iowa State, Minnesota and Ohio State): 38-of-68 (55.9 percent), 259 yards, no touchdowns, five turnovers (three interceptions and two fumbles)

Since his arrival at Iowa ahead of the 2023 season, McNamara has yet to throw a touchdown pass or exceed 125 yards against a power-conference opponent. That could prove to be a problematic trend for McNamara and Co. as the Hawkeyes look ahead to the remaining seven Big Ten games on the schedule.

Other factors affecting Cade McNamara’s performance

Several factors affect quarterback play, of course, including many that are outside of the quarterback’s control.

McNamara’s pass protection, while not perfect, has been serviceable. His 2.66 seconds to throw is the median for Big Ten quarterbacks with at least 120 dropbacks, per PFF.

Ferentz mentioned there are “a lot of new things going on” with Iowa having a new scheme under offensive coordinator Tim Lester. This is not McNamara’s first time learning a new offense, though. In fact, Lester is McNamara’s fifth different offensive coordinator (or co-offensive coordinator) in his six-year collegiate career.

The other variable is Iowa’s relatively inexperienced wide receiver room, where all but two of the scholarship players are freshmen. (It was three before Kaleb Brown’s departure this week.)

“A couple of routes weren’t run exactly like they’re supposed to be, but I would have thrown it exactly the same place,” Lester said during the bye week, looking back at the win over Minnesota where McNamara was 11-of-19 for 62 yards.

How Cade McNamara evaluates himself

McNamara believes he is “playing pretty solid” right now as Iowa’s quarterback.

“Obviously there’s some things I want to clean up,” McNamara said. “But right now I think really these last couple weeks I’ve really found a good rhythm, and I’m getting through my progressions really fast.”

The way McNamara arrived at that conclusion likely did not include many, if any, of the aforementioned metrics. McNamara said things he evaluates — whether it be a practice or a game — include footwork, timing, decision and location while “situational awareness can be a thing” as well.

“As a quarterback, you’re just doing everything you can to put the team in the best position to win,” McNamara said. “At the end of the day, that’s what we’re most worried about.”

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com

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