3 keys, score prediction for Iowa football against Washington

IOWA CITY — Iowa football’s opponent in this weekend’s Big Ten home opener is an unconventional one.

Washington has not played against Iowa since the Hawkeyes won in the 1995 Sun Bowl — about nine years before current Iowa punter Rhys Dakin was born. The last regular-season Iowa-Washington matchup was in 1964, when Kirk Ferentz was 9 years old.

What Washington lacks in Big Ten history it makes up for with Big Ten momentum. The Huskies are coming off a 27-17 win over then-No. 10 Michigan — the same team that they lost to nine months earlier in the national title game.

Here are three keys for the Hawkeyes to stop the Huskies’ momentum:

Will Rogers vs. Iowa’s secondary

Washington’s passing game, despite losing NFL eighth-overall pick Michael Penix Jr., has been a key part of its success in the first half of the 2024 season.

Will Rogers has completed 73.6 percent of his passes while throwing 12 touchdowns versus one interception. His passer rating of 171.4 is 11th-best among 120 qualifying FBS quarterbacks and fourth-best among Big Ten quarterbacks.

That will make for an interesting matchup against Phil Parker’s secondary. Iowa has intercepted at least one pass in each game this season (and had two interceptions against Minnesota). The Hawkeyes’ six interceptions are tied for 27th-best nationally.

The Hawkeyes have occasionally been susceptible to giving up big plays, though. Opposing teams have completed four 50-plus-yard passes against Iowa’s secondary, which is more than in all 14 of Iowa’s 2023 games combined.

Kaleb Johnson vs. a Belichick-coached defense

Ohio State did something no other defense has done. It kept Kaleb Johnson (somewhat) in check.

Iowa’s star running back had 86 yards on 15 carries against the Buckeyes, breaking a streak of four consecutive games with 100-plus rushing yards. (Johnson was the first Iowa running back to accomplish the feat since Mark Weisman did so in 2012.)

Subduing Iowa’s rushing attack proved to be a winning formula for Ohio State as Iowa had to rely more on quarterback Cade McNamara, who had three turnovers in the second half. (All three turnovers set up Ohio State touchdown drives in the 28-point game.)

The Steve Belichick-coached Washington defense has some experience going up against top-tier running backs in the Big Ten this season. Rutgers’ Kyle Monangai had 132 yards against Washington while averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Michigan’s Donovan Edwards had 95 rushing yards while averaging 6.8 yards per carry.

Washington’s 3.92 rushing yards allowed per attempt ranks 12th out of 18 Big Ten teams.

Does Iowa play mistake-free football?

When Washington has lost this season, it often has been because of self-inflicted wounds.

In the Huskies’ 21-18 loss to Rutgers, they missed three field goals. That included a 37-yard attempt midway through the fourth quarter and a 55-yard attempt that would have tied the game as time expired.

In the Huskies’ 24-19 loss to rival Washington State, they gave up 135 penalty yards. That’s almost as much yardage as they gave up on the ground (153).

Iowa, meanwhile, has been the least-penalized team in the country with only 2.4 penalties per game. No other Big Ten team has committed fewer than four penalties.

The Hawkeyes have faced the consequences for other mistakes, though — particularly turnovers. McNamara has suffered a combined five turnovers in Iowa’s two losses this season. In Iowa’s three wins, McNamara has not turned the ball over at all.

Prediction for Iowa vs. Washington

Despite losing almost all of its starters from last year’s College Football Playoff team, Washington has the ingredients necessary to make this a competitive game at Kinnick.

Iowa 20, Washington 17

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com

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