3 keys, score prediction for Iowa football against UCLA

IOWA CITY — It has been quite a while since Iowa football last played UCLA.

It was the 1985 Rose Bowl. Kirk Ferentz was still (barely) in his 20s. New Edition’s “Cool It Now” and Pat Benatar’s “We Belong” were among the Billboard top songs. The average gas price that year was $1.12.

Now as the Hawkeyes visit UCLA on Friday in the Bruins’ inaugural season as a Big Ten member, here are three keys for a better outcome than Iowa had in 1985:

Iowa’s secondary vs. Ethan Garbers

Ethan Garbers has quickly gone from a liability to an asset for UCLA in 2024.

In Garbers’ first six games, he threw four touchdowns versus nine interceptions. In his last two games, he threw six touchdowns and no interceptions. The Rutgers performance was especially impressive, completing 84.2 percent of his passes while throwing for a career-high 383 yards.

Garbers also has shown the ability to run the ball on occasion, most notably with his 57-yard carry against Nebraska last week.

“He's thrown the ball well, efficiently, and getting it to a lot of different people, including the backs,” Ferentz said. “Doing a good job there. Then the last couple weeks he's pulled it down and made some big runs, too. If you're not sound in what you do defensively, he's not afraid to do that.”

Does Iowa’s offense play mistake-free football?

Since Brendan Sullivan replaced Cade McNamara at quarterback early in Iowa’s Oct. 26 win over Northwestern, Iowa’s offense has not committed any turnovers. A continuation of that trend will be key for the Hawkeyes in Pasadena.

Had it not been for Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola’s pick-six against UCLA in the third quarter, the 8.5-point-favorite Huskers — more heavily favored than Iowa will be on Friday — might have experienced a better outcome against the Bruins.

The Bruins’ past ability to take advantage of opposing offenses’ mistakes aside, Iowa is 130-25 in the Ferentz era when winning the turnover battle. Specifically this season, Iowa is 5-0 when not turning the ball over versus 1-3 when committing at least one turnover.

Can Iowa remain in run-friendly situations?

As Iowa approaches its final three games of the 2024 regular season, there is no mistaking its run-first identity.

It was especially apparent against Wisconsin, when Iowa executed 54 run plays versus 10 pass plays. The run-first recipe worked splendidly against the Badgers, as the Hawkeyes racked up 329 rushing yards en route to a 42-10 win.

But that requires Iowa to be in run-friendly situations. The Hawkeyes had the lead for most of the second quarter and the entire third and fourth quarters against Wisconsin.

If Iowa finds itself in a hole (like it did against Michigan State), the Hawkeyes likely will not have the luxury of running the ball 84.4 percent of the time. Sullivan completed 64.3 percent of his passes against Northwestern and 70 percent of his passes against Wisconsin, but those games did not require a high volume of passes.

Prediction

Iowa appears to be the better team on paper in this matchup, but one also would have said that about Rutgers and Nebraska before their recent losses to the Bruins.

Iowa 24, UCLA 21

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com

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