3 keys, score prediction for Iowa football against Troy

IOWA CITY — Some roster turnover is to be expected in the transfer portal era, especially at a program like Troy that lost its head coach to another FBS program.

Troy seems to be giving a whole new meaning to roster turnover this year, though.

The Trojans do not have any players in their final year of eligibility who started their college football careers at Troy, according to Troy sports information. No other school can say that this year (although Colorado and San Diego State are close with one each).

With that much change, it is no surprise Gerad Parker’s group is 0-2 to start the season. The losses have been to Nevada — a team that went 2-10 in each of the last two seasons — and Memphis. The latter has at least received votes in the Associated Press poll.

Iowa is unsurprisingly a 22-point favorite, as of Wednesday evening. Here are three keys for the Hawkeyes to avoid a Notre Dame-esque upset at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday:

Can Iowa capitalize on red-zone opportunities?

Iowa’s failure to take advantage of opportunities in the red zone — more specifically, inside the 5-yard line — was a major issue in the Hawkeyes’ 20-19 loss to Iowa State.

The Hawkeyes had first-and-goal opportunities from the 1-yard line and 3-yard line, and both drives ended in field goals rather than touchdowns. Having to settle twice for field goals is the hypothetical difference between a one-point loss and a seven-point win.

“If we don't do a better job inside the 5, it's going to be tough to envision us having a good year,” Iowa Coach Kirk Ferentz said on Tuesday. “If we can't score some touchdowns in there. And one was off a turnover. You have to take advantage of that.”

Fortunately for the Hawkeyes, Troy’s defense has been porous in the red zone so far.

Troy’s opponents have been in the red zone nine times this season. Eight of those nine trips ended with touchdowns, with the other ending in a field goal. The only teams to give up more red-zone touchdowns so far are Middle Tennessee and Akron.

Does Iowa’s defense give up big plays?

Not giving up big plays — a hallmark of Phil Parker’s defenses — was far from a hallmark in the Hawkeyes’ loss last week.

Iowa’s defense surrendered four 20-plus-yard completions, and all four were on Iowa State scoring drives. That included Rocco Becht’s 75-yard touchdown pass to Jaylin Noel in the third quarter and a 28-yard completion on a third-and-3 earlier in the quarter.

“You want to make people work, you want to make them earn what they get and those four plays really altered the course of the game,” Ferentz said.

Troy still is searching for its first win of the Gerad Parker era, but when the Trojans made big plays offensively, the results have been relatively better. When the Trojans lost by two points to Nevada, they had four 25-plus-yard plays. When the Trojans lost by 21 to Memphis, on the other hand, they had only one 25-plus-yard play.

Damien Taylor vs. Iowa’s defensive front

Iowa’s defense will need to be fundamentally sound with its tackling as it faces a running back who has thrived on continuing to gain yardage after contact.

In fact, 106 of Troy running back Damien Taylor’s 136 rushing yards this season have come after contact, per Pro Football Focus.

Taylor’s 5.9 yards after contact per carry ranks 11th nationally among players with at least 15 rushing attempts, according to PFF. (Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson is one of the 10 players ahead of him.) It is a significant jump from 2023, when he averaged 2.8 yards after contact per carry.

Of course, Taylor has not faced a defense this year quite at the caliber of Iowa’s defense. The Hawkeyes have held opposing offenses to 2.4 yards per carry so far this season. Iowa finished eighth nationally in the statistic last year with 3.1 yards allowed per carry.

Prediction for Iowa vs. Troy

This game should function as somewhat of a palate cleanser for Hawkeye fans after last week’s loss to Iowa State.

Iowa 28, Troy 3

Recommended Reading

Troy’s Gerad Parker ‘couldn’t think more of’ Iowa’s Tim Lester from time at Purdue

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com

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