3 keys, score prediction for Iowa football against Tennessee in Citrus Bowl

ORLANDO — Iowa football has an opportunity to do something on Monday that has only been done three times in program history — win an 11th game in a single season.

The 2002, 2009 and 2015 teams were the only ones to reach — or in 2015’s case, surpass — the 11-win mark. The 2021 team came up just short as it lost to Kentucky during the Hawkeyes’ most recent trip to the Citrus Bowl.

“The best we can do is be an 11-win team, which would really be significant,” Iowa Coach Kirk Ferentz said earlier this week after one of the Hawkeyes’ pre-bowl practices. “Citrus Bowl champions, that would be significant.”

Here are some keys for the Hawkeyes as they try to achieve what they fell short of two years earlier in Orlando:

Nico Iamaleava vs. Iowa’s defense

Nico Iamaleava is Tennessee’s 6-foot-6 wild card in the Citrus Bowl.

The true freshman quarterback will make his first career start against the Hawkeyes after Tennessee’s usual starting quarterback, Joe Milton III, opted out.

Iamaleava arrived at Tennessee with much fanfare as a five-star recruit. 247Sports ranked him second among quarterbacks in the 2024 recruiting class, and On3 ranked him third. His other offers included Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, USC and Oregon, according to his 247Sports profile.

Iowa does not have much film to look through as it prepared for Iamaleava. The Long Beach, Calif., native took 52 snaps during the regular season as Milton’s backup, according to Pro Football Focus.

“I don't think the offense is going to change,” Iowa defensive coordinator Phil Parker said this week. “It’s been very similar to what he's done in the past. … But he is a little bit different in style. Probably runs maybe a little bit better. I'm sure they have got some other things up their sleeve of what they want to do with them.”

If the Iowa defense keeps the young quarterback uncomfortable and forces a few turnovers, the Hawkeyes will be in a good position to potentially pull out another grind-it-out, close game.

But if Iamaleava lives up to the hype in his first career start, the Hawkeyes (with an offense that ranks 130th in yards per game) are not well-equipped for a shootout.

Which offense has the more effective ground attack?

Both teams have been at their best when they are running the ball effectively.

Tennessee ranks sixth nationally with 5.59 yards per carry and 12th with 202.6 rushing yards per game. When the Volunteers rush for at least 160 yards, they are 8-0 this season. When they come up short of that mark, they are 0-4.

The Volunteers’ rushing attack is not at full strength, though, after 1,000-plus-yard rusher Jaylen Wright opted out of the bowl game as he prepares for his professional football career.

Iowa ranks 115th nationally with 3.36 yards per carry and 107th with 116.2 rushing yards per game. While those statistics are not particularly flattering, Iowa’s rushing attack has been a good bellwether of the offense’s overall fortunes.

In Iowa’s 10 wins, it averaged 144.4 rushing yards per game. In Iowa’s three losses, it averaged 22 rushing yards per game — 20 rushing yards against Penn State, 11 against Minnesota and 35 against Michigan.

Which young players emerge as future playmakers?

This key might not dictate the verdict of Monday’s game, but it has plenty of significance for the Hawkeyes when looking at the big picture for 2024 and beyond.

Bowl games often offer a glimpse of players who could be a difference-maker in future seasons.

Two years ago at Camping World Stadium, Cooper DeJean opened eyes with his touchdown-saving tackle in the fourth quarter. He went on to return three interceptions for touchdowns in 2022 and earn unanimous All-America recognition in 2023.

One year ago in the Music City Bowl, Xavier Nwankpa grabbed his first career interception and returned it for a touchdown in the 21-0 win over Kentucky. Then this year, he filled the void left by now-NFL player Kaevon Merriweather as the Hawkeyes’ starting strong safety.

Prediction

Even after opt-outs and transfer departures, Tennessee is a talented foe. But unlike Iowa’s other two ranked opponents this season, the Vols are not necessarily an insurmountable foe for the Hawkeyes.

Iowa 16, Tennessee 14

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com