3 keys, score prediction for Iowa football against Rutgers

IOWA CITY — Greg Schiano is not one to believe in “moral victories.”

Schiano’s Rutgers football team had as close to a moral victory as possible, though, as the Scarlet Knights hung with No. 1 Ohio State last week and led as late as the third quarter despite being 18.5-pound underdogs.

Schiano does “believe that you learn lessons.”

“We learned some lessons today,” Schiano said after the loss to Ohio State. “I did. The players did.”

Here are three keys for the Hawkeyes to avoid giving Schiano anything more significant than a moral victory:

Does Iowa stop (or at least slow down) Rutgers’ rushing attack?

Much of Rutgers’ offensive success stems from its ability to run the ball consistently and effectively.

Kyle Monangai is the centerpiece of the Scarlet Knights’ ground attack. He leads the Big Ten with 903 rushing yards this season — more than Iowa’s Leshon Williams and Kaleb Johnson have combined.

Iowa’s defense has increasingly fared well at stopping the run, but Monangai has recently shown the ability to succeed against talented defenses. He racked up 159 yards against top-ranked Ohio State last week while averaging 6.6 yards per carry.

When Monangai rushes for at least 80 yards, Rutgers is 5-1. (The one loss was to Ohio State.) When he does not reach that mark, Rutgers is 1-2.

Who wins the special teams battle?

Iowa special teams coordinator LeVar Woods said this week Rutgers “presents an unbelievably, incredibly difficult challenge on special teams.”

Rutgers is ninth in the country in special teams efficiency, as measured by ESPN’s Football Power Index. The Scarlet Knights also finished in the top 10 of the metric in 2020 and 2021.

The Scarlet Knights had the challenge of replacing Ray Guy Award winner Adam Korsak. His replacement Flynn Appleby is averaging a less-impressive 40.7 yards per punt, but he has 13 punts inside the 20-yard line versus one touchback.

Rutgers’ primary kicker, Jai Patel, has made 84.6 percent of his field goal attempts this season.

With Iowa’s razor-thin margin for error lately — its last five games were each decided by 10 points or fewer — one big special teams play could be the difference-maker.

Iowa almost saw that against Minnesota when Cooper DeJean appeared to have a punt return for a go-ahead touchdown. It became a moot point, though, after the officiating crew ruled it an invalid fair catch upon replay review.

Can Iowa’s defense create turnovers?

The Hawkeyes have not forced any turnovers in either of their last two games.

Iowa found other ways to win against Northwestern and was tantalizingly close to doing the same against Minnesota, had it not been for the invalid fair catch.

But an advantage in the turnover margin might be necessary to overcome disadvantages elsewhere, especially on the ground. Rutgers’ rushing attack is experiencing plenty of success recently. Iowa’s, with 3.4 yards per carry, is not.

Iowa is 11-1 since the start of the 2022 season when winning the turnover battle.

Fortunately for the Hawkeyes, turnover opportunities are likely to be there on Saturday. Rutgers quarterback Gavin Wimsatt has thrown four interceptions in his last four games.

Prediction

This is not a Rutgers team that Iowa can afford to overlook.

Iowa 13, Rutgers 12

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com