3 keys, score prediction for Iowa football against Ohio State in 2024

IOWA CITY — Kirk Ferentz has coached some intersesting football games at Ohio Stadium over the years.

“We were close in ’09 and played a heck of a game there in ’13, so we've had some times where we've made it competitive,” Ferentz said, referencing one game that went into overtime and another where Iowa had a halftime lead.

But Ferentz, in 26 seasons as head football coach at Iowa, has yet to win at Ohio Stadium. Iowa has lost in 1999, 2003, 2005, 2009, 2013 and most recently 2022 by a 54-10 score.

“Historically they've been really good, and they're tough to beat there,” Ferentz said during this week’s news conference. “We all know that going into it. It's all about what we can do to try to get ready.”

This year likely will not be any easier as No. 3 Ohio State is a 20.5-point favorite against Iowa, as of Wednesday evening. The Buckeyes are coming off a 38-7 win at Michigan State and have not lost to an unranked foe in the Ryan Day era.

Does Kaleb Johnson find the same success against Ohio State’s stout defense?

Running back Kaleb Johnson has been the heart of the Hawkeyes’ offensive success so far in 2024. He has rushed for 100-plus yards in all four of Iowa’s games and has accounted for nine of Iowa’s 15 offensive touchdowns this season.

Recommended Reading

Ohio native Kaleb Johnson was California-bound until his prep coach took him to Iowa

Johnson and the rest of Iowa’s rushing attack will face a major challenge this week, though. Ohio State has allowed only 1.8 rushing yards per carry in 2024. Even against Michigan State — the lone power-conference foe Ohio State has faced — the Buckeyes held the Spartans to 1.9 yards per carry.

Iowa offensive line coach George Barnett said Ohio State has “easily one of the best defensive fronts in college football.”

“They have tremendous talent, tremendous size, speed, power,” Barnett said this week. “They're well coached. … When you watch them on film, you know exactly what they’re trying to get done. And they do it with force.”

Can Iowa’s secondary slow down Ohio State’s receiving corps?

Iowa’s defense has struggled with giving up big plays at a couple points this season. The Hawkeyes can ill-afford for that to happen on Saturday as they face a much more talented receiving corps than Iowa State and Troy had.

Ohio State’s long list of talented receivers starts with Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka. Smith, a former five-star recruit, has racked up 19 receptions for 364 yards as a true freshman this year. Egbuka, with 21 receptions for 362 yards, could potentially break the OSU record for career receptions later this year.

Even if Iowa stops Smith and Egbuka, Carnell Tate is another big-play threat at wide receiver. Tate has recorded at least one 25-plus-yard reception in each of Ohio State’s first four games.

Does Iowa avoid digging itself into any holes?

Given how much better Iowa’s rushing attack has been than its passing game — ranking 12th nationally in yards per carry versus 111th in passing efficiency — the Hawkeyes needs to avoid one-dimensional situations on offense.

“Personally I hope we don't have 60 pass attempts this week,” Ferentz said, “because if we do, I know what the outcome is going to be.”

Iowa is 31-84 in the Ferentz era when trailing at halftime. Any comeback path will be substantially harder than usual against Ohio State’s defense, which is averaging only 6.8 points allowed per game.

Speaking of not digging any figurative holes, it also will be important for Iowa to avoid third-and-long situations. The Hawkeyes are 19-for-27 (66.7 percent) on third downs with 3 or fewer yards to go for a first down. On third-and-4 or longer, the Hawkeyes are 8-for-32 (25 percent) this season.

Prediction for Iowa at Ohio State

Iowa is better-equipped for a game like this than it would have been in 2023 or 2022, but the Hawkeyes still need many things to go their way for this to remain a competitive game.

Ohio State 42, Iowa 16

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com

Sign up for our curated Iowa Hawkeyes athletics newsletter at thegazette.com/hawks.