3 keys, score prediction for Iowa football against Northwestern in 2024

IOWA CITY — Northwestern already is a familiar opponent for Iowa football from their time together in the Big Ten West.

The Wildcats are an especially familiar opponent this year after quarterback Brendan Sullivan and wide receiver Jacob Gill transferred from Northwestern to Iowa in the spring.

Sullivan, speaking to reporters last week, said players on the opposing sideline are “guys that’ll be at my wedding.” Gill, likewise, said this week he is “always in touch with those guys over there.”

“I’m going to try and look at it to the best of my abilities as just another game,” Sullivan said. “But obviously there’s some history there. So it’s super cool to share the field with some of my best friends — guys that I went through some things with.”

Here are three keys for the Hawkeyes to extend their winning streak against Sullivan and Gill’s friends to four games:

Does Iowa play fundamentally sound football?

Iowa’s defense did not do itself any favors with a litany of missed tackles against Michigan State — 20 to be exact, per Pro Football Focus’ updated numbers.

“Our biggest issue — we didn't tackle well,” Iowa Coach Kirk Ferentz said in his weekly news conference. “It's going to be hard to play good defense if we don't tackle better.”

The missed tackles opened the door for a Michigan State offense that previously averaged 349.8 yards per game to put up a whopping 468 yards against Iowa’s usually-stout defense.

Saturday’s game against Northwestern will be the first chance to see whether missed tackling was a one-week mishap or the start of a troubling trend.

Can Iowa’s passing game keep Northwestern’s defense honest?

With the exception of one Kaleb Johnson breakout play, Michigan State did a better job than any other team at containing Iowa’s potent rushing attack.

Johnson had 98 yards on 14 carries, with 75 of those yards coming on his fourth-quarter touchdown run. The only other team to keep Iowa’s star running back below the 100-yard mark was then-No. 3 Ohio State earlier this month.

Michigan State’s blueprint for stopping Johnson and Co. entailed heavily packing the box and essentially daring Iowa’s Cade McNamara to throw the ball.

That worked splendidly for the Spartans as McNamara was 11-of-23 with one touchdown and one interception. If McNamara can present at least some threat at quarterback, it will be much harder for teams like Northwestern to duplicate that strategy.

Northwestern ranks 105th nationally with 246.7 passing yards allowed per game, so Saturday should present a salient opportunity for McNamara to turn the page from his woes in East Lansing.

Does Iowa establish early momentum?

Given that Iowa is 154-39 in the Ferentz era when scoring first, early momentum always is a key for the Hawkeyes. It will be especially a key this week against Northwestern, though.

In each of Northwestern’s three wins this season, the Wildcats scored first. In Northwestern’s lone Big Ten win — the 37-10 win over Maryland — the Wildcats built a 17-0 lead within the first 20 minutes of game action.

Two of Northwestern’s three Big Ten losses, meanwhile, featured early two-possession deficits — a 14-0 hole against Wisconsin and a 17-0 hole against Washington.

Prediction

Last week’s loss to Michigan State was a reminder to not take any underdog for granted. But the Spartans appear to be much better than the Northwestern team that will come to Kinnick on Saturday.

Iowa 20, Northwestern 9

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com

Sign up for our curated Iowa Hawkeyes athletics newsletter at thegazette.com/hawks.