3 keys, score prediction for Iowa football against Northwestern

IOWA CITY — Northwestern football is a 4-4 team that was not necessarily expected to go 4-4 nine weeks ago.

Thirty-six of the 37 voters in Cleveland.com’s preseason poll of Big Ten beat writers picked Northwestern to finish dead last in the Big Ten West. BetMGM set its over/under for Northwestern wins at three going into the season.

Most recently, the 14.5-point underdog Wildcats pulled off a 33-27 upset against Maryland.

“Those oddsmakers aren’t sitting in our room, they are not in our position rooms,” Northwestern interim coach David Braun said, via the Associated Press, after the win over Maryland. “They don’t know the heart that exists in that room. They don’t know the purpose that drives these guys. We’ll let guys make their odds, and we’ll go back to work.”

Iowa is a five-point favorite as of Wednesday afternoon, per ESPN, although that alone does not mean much considering what has happened recently. Here are three keys for the Hawkeyes to win at Wrigley Field:

Brendan Sullivan vs. Iowa’s secondary

Ben Bryant and Brendan Sullivan have both seen significant snaps at quarterback for Northwestern this season. Bryant, a Cincinnati transfer, initially started at quarterback before Sullivan took over because of injury.

Regardless of which quarterback is on the field, their production has been vital to Northwestern’s success this season.

The Wildcats are 3-0 when they have 200-plus passing yards. When they fall short of that mark, they’re 1-4.

When Northwestern upset Maryland, Sullivan went 16-for-23 for a career-high 265 yards while throwing two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also had a career-high 56 rushing yards.

Fortunately for Iowa, pass defense has again been a strength this season. The Hawkeyes rank second in the country with only 4.9 passing yards allowed per attempt, behind only Ohio State. Starting cornerback Cooper DeJean is a semifinalist for the Jim Thorpe Award, which goes to the best defensive back in college football.

How much can Iowa stanch Northwestern’s pass rush?

Northwestern’s pass rush has experienced mixed results this season.

When it’s working, the Wildcats have been a menace to opposing offensive lines.

Northwestern had a season-high six sacks against Maryland last week and had another three quarterback hurries. The frequent pressure was despite only blitzing on 14.8 percent of Taulia Tagovailoa’s dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus.

Other times, it’s a non-factor.

When Northwestern lost its season opener to Rutgers in a hardly competitive, 24-7, game, it had only one quarterback hurry and did not have any sacks.

The pass rush’s success (or sometimes lack of success) has been a bellwether of the team’s overall outcomes. Northwestern has averaged 3.25 sacks per game in its four wins, compared to 0.75 sacks per game in its four losses.

Does Iowa stay healthy while playing on a surface not meant for football?

Injuries already have taken quite the toll on the Hawkeyes this season, especially on offense. With another three games to go and a division title potentially on the line, avoiding any more major injuries will be crucial.

Quality field conditions are not always a given, especially when playing on a baseball field, as was evident during Iowa’s 2017 trip to the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium.

“I've only had one experience playing in a baseball stadium, and that was unique,” Ferentz said. “We got first-class treatment, but the field was not great. There's some challenges with this.”

Prediction

This is a must-win to keep Iowa’s Big Ten West title aspirations realistically within reach. Fortunately for the Hawkeyes, it is a very winnable game.

Iowa 20, Northwestern 9

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com