3 keys, score prediction for Iowa football against Nebraska in 2024

IOWA CITY — The Heroes Trophy has resided in the atrium of Iowa’s Hansen Football Performance Center in eight of the last nine years.

But the Iowa-Nebraska rivalry has been much closer than those outcomes might suggest. The last six Iowa-Nebraska games have been decided by seven or fewer points. That includes three-point Iowa wins in 2018, 2019 and 2023.

Nebraska also appears to be in better standing in Matt Rhule’s second year as head coach than what the Hawkeyes have faced in previous years on Black Friday. The Huskers are bowl-eligible for the first time since 2016.

Here are three keys for the Hawkeyes to keep the Heroes Trophy on Evashevski Drive:

Iowa’s offensive line vs. Nebraska’s defensive line

The better Kaleb Johnson does, often the better Iowa does as a whole.

When Iowa’s star running back rushes for at least 100 yards, the Hawkeyes are 7-1. When he does not reach that mark, the Hawkeyes are 0-3.

The battle at the line of scrimmage ahead of Johnson — Iowa’s offensive line versus Nebraska’s defensive line — could be a major factor in whether Johnson has a UCLA-esque 49-yard performance or a Maryland-esque 164-yard performance.

Iowa’s offensive line (and its run blocking in particular) has been a strength for this 2024 team. Even with Gennings Dunker still recovering from his injury, Iowa is expected to start five offensive linemen against the Huskers who each have at least 19 career starts.

But Nebraska’s defensive front is formidable as well. The Huskers have allowed 3.61 yards per rushing attempt, which ranks 25th nationally. The only teams on Iowa’s schedule to have a better average are Ohio State and UCLA, and neither of those games fared well for Iowa’s rushing attack (or for the Hawkeyes in general).

Who wins the turnover battle?

Turnovers have often tipped the scales in past Iowa-Nebraska games.

A year ago in Lincoln, Cedar Rapids native Ethan Hurkett’s interception in the final minute was crucial en route to the Hawkeyes’ 13-10 win over Nebraska. Two years ago, Iowa’s four turnovers were fatal in its 24-17 loss to the Huskers at Kinnick Stadium.

Going farther back, the team that won the turnover battle has hoisted the Heroes Trophy in four consecutive games. (The turnover battle was tied in 2019 when Iowa won, 27-24, after a Keith Duncan 48-yard field goal with one second left).

Fortunately for Iowa fans, the Hawkeyes are tied for eighth nationally (and lead the Big Ten) in average turnover margin. Nebraska, on the other hand, is tied for 57th nationally and 10th in the Big Ten in the metric.

Does Iowa (again) claim the special teams advantage?

One big special teams play can often be pivotal in a rivalry that has been as competitive as this one.

In 2023, Iowa pulled away with a 13-10 win after walk-on Marshall Meeder’s game-winning 38-yard field goal as time expired.

Going back to 2021, Iowa’s punt block in the third quarter — blocked by Henry Marchese and returned by Kyler Fisher for a touchdown — was the turning point as the Hawkeyes overcame a 21-9 deficit at the end of the third quarter and ended up winning, 28-21.

Iowa has certainly benefited from some big special teams plays this year, whether it be Kaden Wetjen’s 85-yard punt return for a touchdown against Northwestern or Drew Stevens’ program-record-tying five field goals against Maryland. Iowa also has given up some big special teams plays this season, however, such as Troy and Northwestern’s punt returns for touchdowns.

If the Hawkeyes can claim the special teams advantage they’ve claimed in past Heroes Trophy matchups (and avoid the inconsistencies from earlier in the season), that could go a long way in this year’s regular-season finale.

Prediction

Iowa appears to be the superior team on paper (and there is a reason why sportsbooks have Iowa as a 5.5-point favorite), but this has the potential to be a tricky matchup for the Hawkeyes.

Iowa 21, Nebraska 20

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com

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