3 keys, score prediction for Iowa football against Nebraska (2023 game)

IOWA CITY — Nebraska will have a lot on the line as Iowa comes to town.

Sitting at 5-6 with one game remaining, Friday’s game will determine whether the Huskers will be eligible for a bowl.

Perhaps of greater importance, it will determine whether Nebraska — a rebuilding rival whose coach has preached the importance of development — will have an extra month of practices that come with a bowl berth.

But one could hardly tell Nebraska was still clawing for a bowl berth solely based on Iowa Coach Kirk Ferentz’s respect for the Huskers, who are “doing a heck of a job.”

“They're playing like a bowl team right now,” Ferentz said. “They're playing well. … If we could get 10 (wins), that would be really special, but it's not going to be easy, that's for sure.”

Here are three keys for the Hawkeyes to earn their 10th win and avoid gifting Nebraska the sixth win it needs to actually be a bowl team:

How well does Iowa limit Chubba Purdy’s playmaking ability?

Chubba Purdy presents a multidimensional threat at the quarterback position.

Making his first career start against Wisconsin, Purdy threw for 169 yards and ran for 105 yards. That included a highlight-reel-worthy 55-yard scramble out of pressure for a touchdown.

He completed 65.2 percent of his passes in the loss to the Badgers with one touchdown and one interception.

Purdy is not perfect, though. One of his three dropbacks a week earlier against Maryland resulted in a costly interception.

Instead of Nebraska scoring a field goal or even a touchdown — the Husker offense was on the Maryland 7-yard line — Maryland marched the ball down the field for a game-winning field goal.

Iowa’s rushing attack vs. Nebraska’s defensive front

Nebraska has improved significantly this season in stopping the run.

Last year, the Huskers allowed 4.55 yards per carry. This year, the Huskers are allowing 2.83 yards per carry, which ranks fourth in the country.

Iowa, meanwhile, is 6-0 when averaging at least three yards per carry (versus 3-2 when not reaching that threshold).

Whether it be Leshon Williams’ 82-yard touchdown run against Wisconsin or more recently Kaleb Johnson’s 30-yard touchdown against Illinois, the Hawkeyes have been beneficiaries of breakout running plays.

But Iowa will be going up against a Nebraska defense that has only given up 25 rushing plays of 10-plus yards, according to Nebraska sports information. That is tied for the second-fewest in the country.

Can Iowa establish an early lead?

Last year’s Nebraska loss is a case study for what can happen when the Hawkeyes fall behind early.

The Huskers jumped to a commanding, 24-0, lead in Iowa City. Iowa scored 17 unanswered points to make it a 24-17 game, but it could not complete the comeback.

A lot has changed for both teams since then. None of the quarterbacks who played in the 2022 game are on the 2023 rosters. Nebraska has almost an entirely new staff.

But the same concept applies as Iowa prepares for a new-look Nebraska team.

During Kirk Ferentz’s 25 years leading Iowa, the Hawkeyes are 149-38 when scoring first. Specifically this season, the Hawkeyes are 8-1 when scoring first.

Nebraska, meanwhile, has only given up three first-quarter points in its last eight games against Big Ten West opponents combined.

Prediction

Nebraska has been a more competitive team in the Big Ten West than its 5-6 overall record would suggest, but there is a reason why the Hawkeyes are the ones going to Indianapolis next week.

Iowa 19, Nebraska 16

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com