3 keys, score prediction for Iowa football against Missouri in Music City Bowl

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Iowa football already has gone up against Missouri in a couple different ways this month.

Iowa and Missouri both vied for transfer portal recruits Langden Kitchen and Beau Pribula, and Missouri won both recruiting battles. Then in Nashville on Friday (with much lower stakes), the Hawkeyes won the team title in a hot chicken-eating contest at an event welcoming both teams to the bowl site.

As for the upcoming competition between Iowa and Missouri on the football field, here are three keys for the Hawkeyes to take home another Music City Bowl trophy:

How effective is Iowa’s rushing attack without Kaleb Johnson?

It is hard to overstate the impact Kaleb Johnson had on the 2024 Iowa offense.

When Johnson rushed for at least 100 yards, the Hawkeyes were 7-1. When he came up short of that mark, the Hawkeyes were 1-3. (The one win was Iowa’s bizarre, 13-10, win over Nebraska where the Hawkeyes benefited from Nebraska’s muffed punt and other miscues.)

Iowa will need to find a way to win on Monday without Johnson, who opted out of the bowl game as he prepares for the 2025 NFL draft. The Hawkeyes might also be without starting center Logan Jones, who has been wearing a cast on his right hand. (Iowa has not made any official statements about Jones’ status.)

“Obviously (Johnson is) a player that is a game-changer, and losing him sucks, but we have guys that stepped up and played big roles,” Iowa quarterback Brendan Sullivan said. “Our running back room is super deep. … And then our O-line is our O-line. Those guys are mauling people every day, so I’m not too worried about that.”

Kamari Moulton and Jaziun Patterson are Iowa’s top two running backs. Moulton, a redshirt freshman, has 377 rushing yards this season while averaging 5.4 yards per carry — a figure boosted by his 68-yard touchdown run against Maryland in Week 13. Patterson has 235 rushing yards while averaging 4.4 yards per carry. This may be an opportunity for others to see the field as well, though, including true freshmen Brevin Doll and Xavier Williams.

Iowa also will have the benefit of a healthy Sullivan at quarterback. He proved to be an effective dual-threat in Iowa’s wins over Northwestern and Wisconsin as he rushed for 40 and 58 yards, respectively, while completing more than 60 percent of his passes in both games.

Brady Cook vs. Iowa’s secondary

Missouri’s Brady Cook appears to be one of the better quarterbacks the Hawkeyes will face this season.

Cook has completed 63.3 percent of his passes with nine touchdown passes and two interceptions. He also has 169 rushing yards this season, which includes a 30-yard carry against Arkansas and a 31-yard carry against Buffalo. His numbers were even better in 2023 — when he completed 66.1 percent of his passes, had 21 touchdown passes versus six interceptions and amassed 319 rushing yards.

Cook “makes the right throw every single time,” Iowa linebacker Jay Higgins said.

“Then as soon as you lull yourself asleep, he’s going to beat you over the top,” Higgins said. “He’s got ability to run. … Really good throwing the ball on the run, really good at extending the play. So he’s a guy that we need to make sure we stay in coverage, even if he leaves the pocket. And he does the ability to gain the first down himself.”

When Cook has thrown for at least 190 yards, the Tigers are 7-1 this season. (The one loss was by four points at South Carolina, which finished the season at No. 15 in the College Football Playoff rankings.)

Which underclassmen emerge as potential contributors in 2025 and beyond?

A bowl trophy (and the chance for Kirk Ferentz to tie Woody Hayes’ record for all-time wins as a Big Ten member) will be on the line when the Hawkeyes take the field at Nissan Stadium.

But aside from Monday’s final result, it also could be an opportunity to get a sneak peek at who could eventually be a key contributor (or even star) for Iowa in future seasons.

That was evident with Cooper DeJean’s touchdown-saving tackle against Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl three years ago and with Xavier Nwankpa’s pick-six (also against Kentucky) in the Music City Bowl two years ago.

At the same time, a bowl game still is a small sample size. In last season’s 35-0 loss to Tennessee, for example, quarterback Marco Lainez’s 51 rushing yards seemed to be a silver lining. But that was not a precursor to future success, as Lainez did not play at all in 2024 and then entered the transfer portal.

Prediction

Missouri is far from an insurmountable foe, but Iowa has some notable question marks as it plays against a ranked foe without Johnson, Jermari Harris and possibly Jones.

Missouri 20, Iowa 17

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com

Sign up for our curated Iowa Hawkeyes athletics newsletter at thegazette.com/hawks.