3 keys, score prediction for Iowa football against Michigan State in 2024

IOWA CITY — Kirk Ferentz has not had many interactions with his Michigan State counterpart Jonathan Smith yet.

“Only got to meet him this past summer,” Ferentz said.

But Ferentz, the dean of Big Ten coaches, already has plenty of respect for the Spartans’ new head football coach.

“I've known about his career and admired him from afar, also as a player,” the 26th-year Iowa head coach said. “Always have a little affinity for guys that walk on. He walked on at Oregon State, led them to an awful lot of success as a player.”

Smith did a “great job” as the head coach at Oregon State, Ferentz said, and “I think you’re looking at the same thing at Michigan State.”

For as much respect as Ferentz has for Smith’s program, the Spartans have faced some adversity over the last month. They have lost three consecutive games — a 23-19 loss to Boston College, a 38-7 loss to then-No. 3 Ohio State and a 31-10 loss to then-No. 6 Oregon.

Here are three keys for the Hawkeyes to hand Smith and the Spartans their fourth consecutive loss:

Which team better establishes the ground game?

Kaleb Johnson has been the centerpiece of Iowa’s offensive success this season, already racking up 937 rushing yards through six games while averaging 7.9 yards per carry. He has at least one touchdown in every game and has two touchdowns in all but one game.

Michigan State also has a capable duo at running back, though, with Nathan Carter and Kay’ron Lynch-Adams.

Carter was one of the most productive running backs against the Iowa defense last year, racking up 108 yards at Kinnick Stadium while averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Lynch-Adams, a UMass transfer, has 338 rushing yards this season while averaging 5.0 yards per carry.

Michigan State is 2-0 this year when rushing for at least 130 yards. When failing to reach that mark, the Spartans are 1-3. Iowa, meanwhile, is 4-1 when rushing for at least 130 yards and 0-1 when falling short of that number.

Which team wins the special teams battle?

Last year’s Iowa-Michigan State game was a reminder of how much of a difference special teams can make.

With the game knotted at 16-16, Iowa star Cooper DeJean delivered a 70-yard punt return for a touchdown to give the Hawkeyes a lead late en route to what would eventually be a 26-16 win.

That’s not to mention Drew Stevens’ four field goals in the 10-point win, including a 53-yarder in the second half as Iowa trimmed Michigan State’s lead.

Even with Michigan State’s myriad changes and Iowa’s loss of Ray Guy Award winner Tory Taylor, special teams remains a strength on both sides.

Michigan State kicker Jonathan Kim is 9-for-9 on field goals, which includes 50- and 51-yard attempts. MSU punter Ryan Eckley is averaging 48 yards per punt and has at least one 50-plus-yard punt in each of the Spartans’ six games.

Stevens, meanwhile, is 10-of-11 on field goals. (His one miss was from 51 yards against Ohio State.) First-year punter Rhys Dakin is averaging 44.6 yards per punt, with nine of his 30 punts exceeding 50 yards.

Can Iowa pressure Aidan Chiles into making mistakes?

Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles has plenty of potential, but he also has some pitfalls as a relatively young quarterback.

Chiles’ potential was on display earlier this season when he threw for 363 yards in Michigan State’s 27-24 win over Maryland. It was the eighth-highest single-game passing yard total in Michigan State program history.

He also has the ability to make plays on his feet, as evident by his 22-yard gain against Boston College.

“He's a real dangerous player, can hurt you in a couple different ways,” Ferentz said.

But some of Chiles’ pitfalls have been evident in those same games against Maryland and Boston College. He had two interceptions against Maryland and three interceptions against Boston College.

Accuracy issues also emerged in MSU’s Week 1 win over Florida Atlantic, when Chiles went 10-of-24 and threw two interceptions.

Prediction

Iowa’s veteran-laden team should have the advantage in almost every facet of the game against Michigan State.

Iowa 27, Michigan State 14

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com

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