3 keys, prediction for Iowa football against Western Michigan

IOWA CITY — Kirk Ferentz has noticed “a lot of talk” about his 200th career win last week against Iowa State.

A different number comes to mind for the 25th-year Iowa head football coach, though. Two.

"That would be two in losses to Western Michigan since I've been here,” Ferentz said.

Much of the outside world has its sights set a week from now when Iowa takes on No. 7 Penn State — after all, Iowa is a 28.5-point favorite despite averaging only 22 points per game. But Ferentz is first concerned about keeping two losses to Western Michigan from becoming three.

“Every game is important; every day is important,” Ferentz said. “They all count the same. The bottom line is we have to worry about this week.”

Here are three keys for the Hawkeyes as they look to become the fifth Iowa team in the last six years (excluding the Big Ten-only 2020 season) to go undefeated in nonconference play:

How quickly does Cade McNamara connect with receivers?

Western Michigan is known for its tendency to pressure quarterbacks with heavy blitzes. The Broncos have five different players with a sack through the first two games of the season.

“We know these guys are going to come a lot,” Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara said of the Western Michigan pass rush.

McNamara, meanwhile, has taken a career-long 2.85 seconds to throw on average, per Pro Football Focus. (It’s not a surprise considering Iowa’s improved pass protection.)

A quicker release may be necessary against Western Michigan, however, to keep McNamara upright as much as possible.

Iowa’s wide receivers also will need to capitalize on the one-on-one opportunities that are inevitable against a blitzing team.

Does Jermari Harris have any rust after missing 15 games (and if so, how much)?

Saturday will mark 623 days since Jermari Harris last played in a game.

Harris missed all 13 games during the 2022 season with an injury, and then a two-game suspension kept him out of Iowa’s wins against Utah State and Iowa State.

Harris showed what he could do when he started six games in 2021 following injuries to Riley Moss and Terry Roberts.

Reviews from Iowa have been positive this year as well based on what coaches have seen from the first-team cornerback in practice.

“He's fully engaged, ready to roll,” Ferentz said of Harris. “It will be good to get him back.”

Some metaphorical rust would be understandable after going more than 20 months without game action. It would be beneficial if Harris can get that out of the way against Western Michigan before next week’s Big Ten opener at Penn State.

Can Iowa stay healthy?

Iowa will have a five-game stretch after Saturday’s game, featuring No. 7 Penn State, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin and Minnesota before the Oct. 28 idle week.

No. 25 Iowa likely is to be favored in at least three, if not four of those games, with the Penn State trip being the obvious exception. The margin for error will be a lot thinner in those five games, though, than against a team from the Mid-American Conference coming off a 41-point loss to Syracuse.

Especially with a relatively late bye, the more Iowa can avoid injuries ahead of the five-game stretch, the better. That includes avoiding any setbacks to McNamara’s quad, as tempting as it may be to scramble against the blitzing Broncos now that he is “fully back” in practice.

Prediction

This will be a prime opportunity for Iowa to raise its season scoring average

Iowa 31, Western Michigan 3

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com