3 keys, prediction for Iowa football against Utah State

IOWA CITY — Gas prices were 34 cents per gallon. The Beatles’ “Hey Jude” was the Billboard top song of the year. The moon landing had not happened yet.

Kirk Ferentz was 13 years old.

All those things were true the last time Utah State football defeated a Big Ten team — a 20-0 win over Wisconsin in 1968 — and that is unlikely to change this week in Iowa’s season opener on Saturday against the Aggies.

Utah State, picked to finish eighth in the Mountain West, has 59 newcomers after suffering significant transfer portal losses. Only nine starters from last year are returning. The Aggies also lost both their offensive and defensive coordinators.

“I feel like we have an idea of what to expect schematically, but you just never know,” Ferentz said. “And that's true in any first game, no matter if the whole staff had returned.”

Here are three keys for the Hawkeyes to remove any lingering doubt early and put themselves in a good position for more challenging games farther down on the schedule:

How effective is Iowa’s defensive front at stopping Utah State’s rushing attack?

Much of Utah State’s success last year was dependent on whether it could establish an effective ground game.

When Utah State had a player cross the 100-rushing-yard threshold last year, the Aggies were 5-1. When that did not happen, the Aggies were 1-6.

The Hawkeyes seem to have the clear advantage here, though.

Utah State must replace top running back Calvin Tyler Jr., who racked up 1,122 rushing yards while averaging 4.4 yards per carry. (He signed with the Cincinnati Bengals as an undrafted free agent, but did not make an NFL team’s 53-man roster.)

The Aggies also only returned one starting offensive lineman from last year.

Iowa’s defensive line, on the other hand, remains a strength despite the loss of Lukas Van Ness to the NFL Draft and Noah Shannon to a yearlong gambling suspension. The four first-teamers on the depth chart had a combined 17 sacks in 2022.

Who wins the special teams battle?

Special teams play is unlikely to be the differentiating factor in a game where Iowa is a 23.5-point favorite, but it will be something interesting to watch.

Iowa’s special teams unit has been one of the highest-regarded groups in college football. ESPN’s SP+ ratings graded the Hawkeyes’ 2022 special teams as fifth-best in the country and second-best in the Big Ten (behind only Michigan).

Utah State does not jump off the page in the SP+ special teams ratings — the Aggies finished 64th — but it has some intriguing special teams weapons.

Stephen Kotsanlee is on the preseason watch list for the Ray Guy Award, which goes to the best punter in college football. He averaged 42.5 yards per punt in 2022.

Defensive back Ike Larsen, a first-team preseason all-Mountain West selection, blocked three punts last season, breaking the Utah State single-season record.

“We're going to give him a lot of attention and be mindful of where he is,” Ferentz said.

Assuming Cade McNamara does play, can the Hawkeyes ensure he does not need to do too much?

As of Wednesday evening, Kirk Ferentz was optimistic about quarterback Cade McNamara’s chances of playing against Utah State. (McNamara still officially is a game-time decision, though.)

If he does play on Saturday, having an effective supporting cast will be a key for both Saturday’s game and the following weeks.

A complementary rushing attack and solid protection from the offensive line would lessen the burden on a quarterback who missed a significant portion of fall camp.

It would not be ideal if McNamara has to frequently scramble out of collapsing pockets — like what happened when he suffered the non-contact muscle injury at the Aug. 12 open practice.

Prediction

The Hawkeyes will be sweating this one out literally — the temperature in Iowa City is expected to be 93 degrees on Saturday — but probably not figuratively.

Iowa 27, Utah State 3

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com