3 keys, prediction for Iowa football against Purdue in 2023

IOWA CITY — The first-year head coach tour on Iowa football’s schedule has another stop this weekend.

Purdue’s Ryan Walters is the third of six first-year or interim head coaches the Hawkeyes either have faced or will face in the 2023 regular season.

Walters, who previously worked as defensive coordinator at Illinois, has experienced some ups and downs with Purdue in his first season.

The lows include a season-opening loss to Fresno State and a 38-17 loss to Wisconsin in which Purdue failed to capitalize on key opportunities. But the highs include a road win at Virginia Tech and last week’s dominant, 44-19, win over Illinois.

Here are three keys for the Hawkeyes to fare better against Purdue than their Big Ten neighbors to the east did a week earlier:

Hudson Card vs. Iowa’s secondary

This is not exactly the same Purdue air-it-out offense that Hawkeye fans have seen in past years.

The 2022 Boilermakers passed on 55.6 percent of plays. The 2021 Boilermakers passed on 59.5 percent of plays. Walters’ 2023 team through five games is at 48.6 percent.

Even with Purdue’s increased emphasis on its ground attack — one where former Hawkeye Tyrone Tracy Jr. is heavily involved — much of the Boilermakers’ offensive success is dependent on having an effective passing game.

Hudson Card, a transfer from Texas, has completed 63.8 percent of his passes while throwing five touchdowns and three interceptions.

When Card throws at least one interception, Purdue is 0-2. When he does not throw an interception, Purdue is 2-1 (with the one loss coming against a Fresno State team that has since entered the AP Top 25).

Does the offensive line give Deacon Hill enough time to take advantage of his big arm?

Unsurprisingly for a Ryan Walters-coached team, one of Purdue’s biggest defensive strengths is its ability to rush the passer. The Boilermakers are second in the Big Ten with 3.4 sacks per game behind Penn State.

“They force you basically to block every guy out there with the five-man rush,” Iowa Coach Kirk Ferentz said. “It's five guys blocking five. Either they're moving a couple guys, working them in combination to get somebody open, or just one-on-one block. It's a challenge every play.”

Meanwhile, one of Iowa quarterback Deacon Hill’s biggest strengths is his arm power. Hill’s strength could become moot, however, if Iowa’s receivers do not have proper time to get downfield.

Do the Hawkeyes avoid costly turnovers?

Ferentz brought up unprompted this week how the Hawkeyes “need to do a better job with ball security,” and he did so with good reason.

Iowa ranks 11th in the 14-team Big Ten with nine turnovers given up so far this season.

One of those nine turnovers could have been especially costly against Michigan State, had Iowa’s fortunes not eventually changed in the fourth quarter.

Iowa running back Leshon Williams fumbled in the third quarter, and Michigan State’s Cal Haladay recovered it and returned it for an easy touchdown to take a 16-10 lead.

An eye-opening 70-yard punt return by Cooper DeJean for a touchdown and three Drew Stevens field goals bailed out the Hawkeyes with 16 unanswered points later in the half. As talented as DeJean is, though, those are not plays Iowa can consistently rely on to win games.

Iowa has won the turnover margin in four out of five games this season, and those are Iowa’s four wins. In the Hawkeyes’ lone loss — the 31-0 blowout by Penn State — they lost the turnover margin, 4-0.

Prediction

Purdue is a respectable team, but this is a game Iowa should win and needs to win if it will be a contender in the Big Ten West.

Iowa 24, Purdue 21

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com