3 keys, prediction for Iowa football against Penn State in ‘White Out’ game

IOWA CITY — Fourteen years have passed since Iowa football last played in a Penn State “White Out” game, but Coch Kirk Ferentz will “never forget that sound.”

“It's a good sound or a bad sound, depending what sideline you're on,” Ferentz said.

No, he is not referring to the noise of the 100,000-plus fans. That sound was Adrian Clayborn blocking a punt that shifted the tide in the 21-10 upset and accelerated momentum in the 2009 Orange Bowl season.

“He's a special player and a special person,” Ferentz said of Clayborn. “And it's funny how that works sometimes, too. Guys like that just spark a team. And after that, we had a little different demeanor the rest of the way.”

Las Vegas sportsbooks do not seem to be so keen on Iowa’s chances of taking down another top-10 Penn State team on Saturday. Iowa is a 15-point underdog, as of Wednesday evening.

Here are three things the Hawkeyes need to do to overcome the odds:

Does vintage Cade McNamara show up on Saturday?

There is the Cade McNamara who led Michigan to the College Football Playoff in 2021, and then there’s the injury-recovering Cade McNamara Iowa has seen so far in 2023.

Which version of Cade McNamara shows up will be key indicator of how competitive the Hawkeyes can be in Happy Valley.

McNamara completed 64.2 percent of his passes and had nearly three times as many touchdowns as interceptions when he led Michigan to the CFP. Those numbers would theoretically give the Hawkeyes a good shot at an upset in Happy Valley.

But McNamara has completed 53.5 percent of his passes and thrown four touchdowns versus three interceptions. Those numbers, if repeated Saturday, would give the Hawkeyes a very narrow path to victory.

McNamara missed two weeks of fall camp because of the quad injury — and was limited in the following weeks as he “managed” the injury.

“When guys can't practice or they can't practice full speed it impacts everything,” Ferentz said. “And that's players at all levels. NFL guys are no different. If they're not on the field getting the work they need to get at some point, it catches up.”

Now that McNamara is in his second week of being able to fully participate in practice, an improvement from a shaky first three weeks will be vital.

Iow’s defensive front vs. Penn State’s talented RB duo

Iowa has recently been one of the best teams in the country at stopping the run.

The Hawkeyes’ 2.83 yards allowed per carry last year was the best in the country. The year before, Iowa was eighth-best in the country with 3.15 yards allowed per carry.

But containing Penn State’s running backs is no easy feat for any defense.

Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton essentially had their choices of schools when they were recruits. Now, they’re producing big numbers.

Allen is averaging 5.0 yards per carry, and Singleton is averaging 4.3 yards. It’s not an issue of small sample size either; both have averaged at least 12 rushing attempts per game.

The Nittany Lions have rushed for at least 100 yards in all three of their games.

Stopping the run is not always a prerequisite for Iowa’s success. Minnesota, led by Mo Ibrahim, racked up a whopping 312 rushing yards against Iowa last year, but the Hawkeyes walked away with a 13-10 win.

But Minnesota’s Athan Kaliakmanis is no Drew Allar.

Penn State’s Allar, a former high-profile recruit, has completed 63.5 percent of his passes while throwing four touchdowns and no interceptions.

How reliable is Iowa’s ground game against a stronger opponent?

The biggest reason for optimism after Iowa’s 41-10 win over Western Michigan was what happened offensively on the ground.

The Hawkeyes rushed for 254 yards — the most in a single game since their 2019 contest against Middle Tennessee. They did it despite first-teamer Kaleb Johnson missing the entire game and key reserve Jaziun Patterson missing a large portion.

Johnson and Patterson are expected to miss the Penn State game, so the bulk of the rushing duties will likely belong to Leshon Williams, Kamari Moulton and Terrell Washington Jr. The latter two are true freshmen.

Having an effective running game “would certainly be helpful,” Ferentz said this week.

“It's hard to find people to beat these guys because they haven't lost many games in the last 50 years, 60 years,” Ferentz said. “But the teams that beat them last year did run the ball a little bit successfully. ... You’ve got to try to find a way. These guys are a really unique challenge, very aggressive, very athletic. They make it tough on you.”

Iowa-Penn State prediction

An upset is certainly not impossible, but it would require almost everything to go right for the Hawkeyes on offense, defense and special teams. A well-timed turnover (or a blocked punt), of course, would go a long way in helping Iowa’s chances.

Penn State 27, Iowa 20

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com