3 keys, prediction for Iowa football against Iowa State in 2023 Cy-Hawk game

IOWA CITY — Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz is approaching a milestone few coaches reach.

Ferentz’s next win will be his 200th as a head football coach, joining 35 others in college football history.

He would be the fifth active head coach to reach the milestone, along with Alabama’s Nick Saban, North Carolina’s Mack Brown, LSU’s Brian Kelly and Sam Houston’s K.C. Keeler.

“It means I've been around good players and good people and in a good place,” Ferentz said Tuesday. “I've been really fortunate that way. At least I'm smart enough to know that.”

Here are three keys for Iowa football to help Ferentz make history Saturday in Ames (and bring the Cy-Hawk Trophy back east, too):

Who wins the turnover battle?

While the turnover battle always is a key for the Hawkeyes — Iowa is 118-25 all-time in the Ferentz era when it has a positive turnover margin — it has especially been a key in recent Cy-Hawk battles.

Three of the last five Cy-Hawk games have been decided by three or fewer points, and turnovers caused tidal shifts in two of those three games.

In 2022, Iowa fullback Monte Pottebaum’s fumble at the Iowa State 1-yard line kept the Hawkeyes from taking a 14-3 lead. Instead, Iowa State embarked on a 99-yard touchdown drive and took a 10-7 lead.

In 2019, Iowa State’s infamous punt return snafu took away a possible game-winning drive from the Cyclones as Iowa escaped Jack Trice Stadium with an 18-17 win.

In what could be a low-scoring game between two teams with better defenses than offenses, one timely turnover could easily shift the momentum of Saturday’s rematch.

Can Iowa effectively use its wide receivers against Iowa State’s talented secondary?

Seth Anderson stirred the figurative pot with his comments earlier in the week that he saw “a lot of opportunity” when looking at Iowa State on film.

In all seriousness, though, Iowa State appears to have one of the better secondaries the Hawkeyes will face in 2023.

T.J. Tampa, a senior from St. Petersburg, Fla., is coming off a season with a team-best nine pass breakups. After starting seven games as a true freshman in 2022, Jeremiah Cooper had two interceptions last week to kick off the 2023 season. Other names to watch in the secondary include Myles Purchase, Beau Freyler and Malik Verdon.

It could potentially put a premium on production from Iowa’s wide receivers — an area that had limited results in the season opener. Quarterback Cade McNamara was 3-of-11 when throwing to wide receivers against Utah State.

Does Iowa shore up its run blocking?

Iowa averaged 2.4 yards per carry against Utah State.

It still walked away with a 10-point win, but that is unlikely to be sustainable against stiffer competition.

An effective ground game also would mean the Hawkeyes are not as reliant on McNamara, who is working through a quad injury from last month.

Tight ends coach Abdul Hodge has emphasized “having a great first step,” Erick All said Wednesday.

"We’ve been struggling on just getting a great first step,” All said. “It's a world of difference from taking a bad first step and a great first step. … You block with your feet and your footwork and the rest comes later, and we got to figure that out.”

While the path to victory would be significantly easier with success on the ground, Iowa has found ways to win without winning the run battle. Iowa State had the advantage in yards per carry in the last three Cy-Hawk games, yet Iowa was victorious in two of those games.

Prediction

Points may be hard to come by as two offenses with new pieces go up against two talented defenses. Iowa has not lost in Ames since 2011, and if Iowa’s offense does its part, that is unlikely to change in 2023.

Iowa 16, Iowa State 13

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com