3 keys, prediction for Iowa football against Purdue

After a challenging three-game stretch against then-No. 4 Michigan, Illinois and then-No. 2 Ohio State, Iowa football was back to having fun last week.

“It kind of felt like being a kid again, just running around playing backyard football,” tight end Sam LaPorta said with a smile after the Hawkeyes’ 33-13 win over Northwestern.

Here are three keys for Iowa to keep up the fun against Purdue on Saturday and win its second straight game:

Iowa’s secondary vs. Purdue’s receiving corps

Purdue, under the leadership of head coach Jeff Brohm, has been one of the few teams to find consistent success against Iowa’s secondary.

In 2021, David Bell caught 11 of 12 targets and finished with 240 receiving yards. He had 121 yards in 2020 and 197 yards in 2019.

Before Bell’s stardom, Terry Wright had 146 yards against Iowa in 2018 and Anthony Mahoungou had 135 yards in 2017.

In all but one of those games, Bell, Wright or Mahoungou’s receiving prowess was too much for the Hawkeyes to overcome.

Veteran quarterback Aidan O’Connell and Purdue’s receiving corps has the potential to do the same in 2022.

Charlie Jones, the former Hawkeye wide receiver, had 153 yards in his Purdue debut against Penn State and 188 against a Syracuse team now in the College Football Playoff Top 25.

Jones has been banged up and missed some practice time, but if he is not at full strength, the Boilermakers have other options. Tight end Payne Durham has caught at least four passes in Purdue’s last six games.

Coverage will be especially important considering the challenges Iowa could face pass-rushing the Boilermakers. Iowa’s defensive front has been a strength this season, but recording seven sacks is less likely against Purdue than it was last week against Northwestern.

“It’s hard to get disruption from a rush standpoint because they get rid of the ball so quickly,” Iowa assistant defensive line coach Jay Niemann said. “A lot of teams are rushing three guys even and dropping eight into coverage.”

How much protection does Spencer Petras have?

Iowa fans saw a different Spencer Petras against Northwestern than in the first seven games.

Petras completed 70 percent of his throws against the Wildcats after completing just 53.1 percent of his passes in Iowa’s first seven games.

He had one touchdown and no interceptions after throwing three interceptions and no touchdowns in his previous two games.

Better offensive line play was among the factors that helped Petras show improvement against the Wildcats.

How much of his success from last week carries over to the next four games “depends on how we play around him,” Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz said.

Purdue no longer has George Karlaftis, but still has plenty of depth at defensive line. Eight different defensive linemen have taken at least 100 snaps this season, according to Pro Football Focus. Ten have taken at least 50 snaps.

Can Petras take advantage of opportunities from Purdue’s secondary?

A quick glance at Purdue’s stat sheet would suggest the secondary has played well in 2022. The Boilermakers’ 10 interceptions this season are tied with Ohio State for third-most in the Big Ten.

It’s been far from a flawless unit recently, though.

Nebraska’s Casey Thompson exposed Purdue’s weakness in the secondary quickly, completing six passes of at least 30 yards last month.

Maryland’s Taulia Tagovailoa, on a first-and-25, found an open receiver downfield for a 68-yard touchdown. Wisconsin’s Graham Mertz completed two of his first three passes for more than 25 yards against the Boilermakers.

Petras has not had a 35-plus-yard completion since the Sept. 24 win at Rutgers. The opportunities could be there for the fifth-year senior to change that against Purdue. Whether he takes advantage could have a significant outcome on Saturday’s result.

Wind gusts of more than 40 miles per hour are in the forecast, so this key could be rather difficult to execute.

What’s at stake

A win would bring Iowa one step closer to erasing the question mark next to bowl eligibility.

If Iowa wins and improves to 5-4, winning at least one of its next three games — all three are against unranked teams — would be not only realistic, but probable.

Illinois has a two-game lead and the tiebreaker over Iowa in the Big Ten West standings, so even with a win over Purdue, the Hawkeyes would need a lot of help to be a legitimate contender for a division title this year.

Iowa can sustain a loss to the Boilermakers and still have a realistic path to bowl eligibility although the Hawkeyes would be mathematically eliminated from a repeat trip to the Big Ten Championship.

Prediction

Saturday’s trip to West Lafayette is winnable, but so have been the Hawkeyes’ previous five games against Brohm’s Boilermakers. Iowa lost four of them.

Purdue 17, Iowa 16

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com