3 keys for Iowa football against Northwestern

Iowa’s schedule is going from one extreme to the other.

Last week, Iowa played at No. 2 Ohio State. This week, it’s playing host to one of the worst teams in the Big Ten.

Northwestern has lost 12 of its last 13 games, dating back to last year. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald is one loss away from not being bowl-eligible in consecutive seasons for just the third time since taking over the program in 2006.

The Hawkeyes are 11-point favorites, as of Wednesday afternoon. Northwestern has won the last three games at Kinnick, though.

Here are three keys for the Hawkeyes to avoid the upset Saturday and improve to 4-4:

Who wins the turnover battle?

Perhaps the most glaring statistic from Iowa’s 54-10 loss to No. 2 Ohio State was in the turnover category.

The Hawkeyes gave up six turnovers — more than what 10 FBS teams have given up all season — at Ohio Stadium.

When factoring in the two turnovers Iowa forced, the Hawkeyes were minus-four in the turnover margin.

Iowa will be the clear favorite against Northwestern, but giving up turnovers could open the door for the Wildcats to make Saturday’s contest competitive.

Thankfully for the Hawkeyes, turnovers are not Northwestern’s specialty. The Wildcats’ turnover margin is minus-eight — one of the worst margins in college football.

What does Evan Hull accomplish against Iowa’s defense?

Iowa has seen its fair share of upper-tier running backs in the month of October.

First, it was Michigan’s Blake Corum. Then, Illinois’ Chase Brown. Then, Ohio State’s Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson.

The trend will continue in Iowa’s final game of October with Northwestern’s Evan Hull.

Hull rushed for more than 1,000 yards last year while averaging 5.1 yards per carry.

This year, his numbers aren’t quite as high. He is averaging 4.4 yards per carry and has 547 rushing yards through seven games, putting him at pace to finish with 938 yards on the ground.

His receiving skills have improved, though, since last season. When he had six catches for 89 receiving yards against Iowa in 2021, it was an anomaly. Now, it would not seem out of place.

When Iowa faced Corum and Brown, the results weren’t pretty. When Iowa faced Williams and Henderson, the Buckeye duo had fewer than 100 yards. All three games were losses, but Ohio State’s big win was despite its rushing offense, not because of it.

Can Iowa make a big play on offense?

Among the other challenges for the Hawkeyes’ offense against No. 2 Ohio State was the lack of big plays.

Quarterback Spencer Petras’ longest pass against Ohio State was for 17 yards. Fellow quarterback Alex Padilla’s longest pass was for 10 yards. Iowa’s longest running play was for 18 yards.

A few explosive plays could give Iowa a helpful lift in a game between two teams that have often struggled offensively.

The big-play opportunities are more likely to be there against Northwestern’s secondary than against Ohio State.

In Northwestern’s most recent game — a 31-24 loss to Maryland — Billy Edwards Jr., Maryland’s backup quarterback, had completions for 28 and 30 yards on touchdown-scoring drives.

Maryland running back Roman Hemby had a 75-yard touchdown run. Edwards also had a 32-yard run.

What’s at stake

Saturday’s game is essentially a must-win for Iowa’s bowl eligibility.

With a win, Iowa would need to go 2-2 in its last four games — not a cake walk, but doable against Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Nebraska — to be eligible for a bowl.

With a loss, Iowa would need to go 3-1 against four teams that are all probably better than Northwestern, and two of those games are on the road.

Prediction

This is a prime opportunity for Iowa to snap its three-game losing streak.

Iowa 17, Northwestern 3

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com