Small gap in Iowa results spells big consequences for DeSantis and Haley

There’s no doubt that former President Donald Trump, with his best-in-field showing Monday night in the Iowa Republican caucuses — as well as his own private jet — can claim one of the proverbial “three tickets out of Iowa.”

Trump, according to unofficial results, ran away with the Iowa’s quadrennial straw poll at more than 1,600 precinct caucuses with nearly 51 percent of the ballots cast compared with 21 percent for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and 19 percent for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

However, the caucuses are less about crowning a nominee than signaling who has the momentum — and resources — to stay in the race and who should return to their day job.

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“It’s not always about who finishes first. Rather it’s about beating expectations,” said Tim Hagle, a University of Iowa political science professor. “Trump had a very good night,” he said. “The path is harder for DeSantis and Haley, but the race isn’t over.”

With Trump dominating the contest, the caucuses were seen as a race for second place. The large gap between Trump’s 51 percent and the second and third-place finishers probably isn’t as important as the small gap between DeSantis and Haley, according to Barbara Trish, a Grinnell College political science professor.

“Second stays in regardless and might get some bump,” she said. The margin between second and third is more important “certainly for DeSantis, but maybe for Haley, too.”

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Despite Haley’s surge in the polls, it wasn't a surprise to see her finishing third, based on the lack of enthusiasm her supporters showed in the Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll released Sunday, Trish said. The poll found 49 percent of her fans were only “mildly enthusiastic” and 12 percent “not that enthusiastic.”

As close as DeSantis and Haley finished, “I don’t think it matters whether you’re second or third,” said Republican Party of Iowa Chair Jeff Kaufmann. “Both campaigns can spin that, can claim momentum.”

Regardless of the order of finish, both won tickets out of Iowa — but without naming DeSantis or Haley, Kaufmann noted that “some tickets could be cashed in 2028.”

The near tie for second “is bad for DeSantis, good for Haley,” said Steffen Schmidt, a professor emeritus of political science at Iowa State University. Despite finishing behind DeSantis, Haley can make the argument he “failed to deliver … even after spending all of his campaign in Iowa,” Schmidt said.

DeSantis has had more campaign events in Iowa than Trump and Haley combined. He also had endorsements from Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds as well as from Bob Vander Plaats, president of The Family Leader, an organization of Christian conservatives based in Urbandale.

What matters now, Kaufmann said, is whether Haley can use her Iowa performance to narrow the gap between her and Trump in New Hampshire, “or does DeSantis capitalize by picking up those Christie supporters in next Tuesday’s primary?” Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who polls show was leading DeSantis in the Granite State, has dropped out of the race.

“Based on polling there, nothing is wrapped up,” Kaufmann said.

Although Haley scored her best numbers in Polk and surrounding counties, Linn County and Johnson County, where she won, Dante Scala, who teaches political science at the University of New Hampshire in Manchester, was not impressed. Haley’s numbers with college-educated and suburban voters — who he believes are more similar to New Hampshire voters than Iowa’s older, rural voters — “makes me pessimistic about her growth potential here in New Hampshire.”

Or, as Drake University political science professor Dennis Goldford wondered, “Has the Haley boom been revealed to be a bubble?”

Haley’s third-place finish also makes it hard for her to make it a “me or Trump” contest going into New Hampshire, where the race is much closer. Trump leads Haley 45 percent to 31 percent.

Longtime New Hampshire GOP strategist Mike Dennehy, who was skeptical Trump would break 50 percent, isn’t sure conventional wisdom applies in 2024. “That is the story of the night,” Dennehy said. “Second place is so distant that it doesn’t matter.”

DeSantis’ second-place finish breathes fresh life into a campaign that seemed to stall out as he fell behind Haley in polling during the last weeks of the race. Now it appears his “all-in” approach has paid off — at least for now.

“He can ride that for a bit here,” Scala said. In New Hampshire, DeSantis was tied with Vivek Ramaswamy at 6 percent, behind Christie at 9 percent. Ramaswamy also ended his campaign Monday as the caucus results were announced.

The competitiveness of the race “may have declined considerably as a result of (Monday) night, said Chris Larimer, University of Northern Iowa political science professor. ”The pressure is now on Haley to try to make this competitive in New Hampshire and beyond,” he said.

Or, as Goldford said, Haley has to finish off DeSantis in New Hampshire and South Carolina to make it a two-person race. “If reports of his invisibility in New Hampshire are accurate, he’s probably toast,” Goldford said of DeSantis.

“He’s been a ghost,” agreed Scala, referring to DeSantis allocating his time and resources to Iowa rather than New Hampshire.

The DeSantis strategy appears to be shifting the campaign to South Carolina and the 16 Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses March 5. But his distant second-place finish in Iowa failed to meet the early expectations for his campaign “and would present a real challenge for his campaign in terms of keeping momentum and fundraising efforts,” Larimer said.

However, Hagle points out that Democratic President Joe Biden did poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire in 2020, but turned things around in South Carolina.

It may be a long shot, but Larimer sees an opportunity for Haley and DeSantis to improve their fortunes in the upcoming contest.

“Perhaps, as the race moves to primary states, presumably with more expanded electorates and higher turnout rates, the potential is there for the race to become more competitive,” he said. “This seems less likely after last night's results and the way the campaign has unfolded thus far.”

“Haley will come to New Hampshire to try to rally independents to come close to Trump,” Dennehy said, but DeSantis “has no margin for recovery” and may be pressured to drop out of the race “because he has been struggling for so long,.”

”He’s a dead man walking,” Dennehy said.

But Haley has her challenges, especially with Republican voters, in New Hampshire, he added. “Her favorability/unfavorability rating is about one-to-one,” he said. “Her support is coming almost exclusively from independent voters,” who can vote in the New Hampshire primary.

Independents can account for as much as 40 percent of the primary vote there, he said, and Haley is trying to push it higher to counter Trump’s support among Republicans.

Upsetting Trump in New Hampshire might provide that spark for the Haley campaign, Scala said. “Independent would love to poke him with a sharp stick. The question is whether Haley is that sharp stick,” Scala said.

However, it’s not clear to Dennehy that independents and moderate Republicans will turn out for Haley. With the endorsement of New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, Haley has “done a good job of pumping up her story,” Dennehy said. “They’re exactly where they want to be a week out.”

However, Dennehy said Trump’s people “are poised and ready, the most solid bloc.”

James Q. Lynch is a retired politics reporter for The Gazette.