Talking tiers: Examining the 2025-26 Big Ten women’s basketball race

The opportunity most certainly is there for a fast start for the Iowa Hawkeyes in Big Ten women’s basketball play.

Currently ranked 14th, the Hawkeyes (10-2 overall) already have a conference win in the bank; they routed Rutgers on the road back on Dec. 6.

It’s all league play from now until March 1, re-starting with a home date Sunday with Penn State (7-5, 0-1); tipoff is 3 p.m. at Carver-Hawkeye Arena (BTN).

Then it’s a New Year’s Day battle with Nebraska at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, then a trip to Northwestern on Jan. 5.

That’s three projected lower-tier opponents, plus Nebraska at home, to start league play. Three-and-1 should be a given, and 4-0 a strong possibility, before the first true road challenge (Jan. 11 at Indiana).

ESPN currently has 13 teams listed in its women’s bracketology. But 11 weeks remain between now and Selection Sunday, so for now, let’s focus on the Big Ten race:

Tier 1: The favorite

UCLA.

Led by preseason Big Ten player of the year Lauren Betts, the Bruins are a good bet to reach a second consecutive Final Four. Betts is among seven UCLA players averaging 9 points or more per game.

The Bruins face one of their stiffest league challenges Sunday, at Ohio State. They host Maryland (Jan. 18), then make play both Michigan and Michigan State on the road in a four-day stretch in early February.

Pass all of those tests, and a perfect Big Ten state is possible.

Tier 2: The challengers

Michigan, Maryland.

Both reside in the top 10 nationally, both by the Associated Press and in the NET rankings.

One of Michigan’s statements to date was a 39-point neutral-site win over Notre Dame on Nov. 15. The other was a 72-69 loss to No. 1 Connecticut, six days later. The Wolverines are legit.

As for Maryland, it’s still difficult to fathom its 100-99 double-overtime victory at Minnesota on Dec. 7; the Terrapins trailed by nine points with less than a minute to go, but pulled it out.

Tier 3A: NCAA locks

Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan State, USC.

The gap is razor-thin between fourth place and 12th (the projection here is a seven-way tie for sixth place at 10-8).

Nebraska is off to a 12-0 start, and the Huskers’ double-play with Iowa will be key. If either squad can manage a sweep of the other, that will loom large. The Huskers and the Hawkeyes rank 11th and 12th in the NET.

Ohio State’s lone non-conference loss was a decisive one to UConn. USC will play the entire season without JuJu Watkins, and draws the unfortunate task of facing UCLA twice.

Michigan State stays in this group despite a puzzling loss at Wisconsin.

Whither Iowa? The guess here is a 12-6 mark and sole possession of fourth place.

Tier 3B: NCAA hopefuls

Indiana, Illinois, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota.

These five should linger at or near the break-even mark in the Big Ten. All could slide around 8-10; any of them are capable of jumping toward 11-7 or 12-6 if good fortune arises.

If anybody in this clump is on the outside looking in come Selection Sunday, the most likely candidate is Minnesota.

Tier 4: Out of purgatory

Wisconsin.

It’s been 14 years since the Badgers have won more than six Big Ten games in a season. UW probably won’t break that glass ceiling this season either, but its home upset of Michigan State is a sign that things might be moving in the right direction in Robin Pingeton’s first year in Madison.

Tier 5: Still stuck in neutral

Purdue, Penn State, Rutgers, Northwestern.

Any win that any of these teams can maneuver against anyone outside of this quartet can be considered a surprise.

Someone here might knock off a caught-sleeping middle-of-the-pack squad at some point, likely at home. But it figures to be another long winter in West Lafayette, University Park, Piscataway and Evanston.

How they’ll finish:

(Overall records not including postseason)

1. UCLA 18-0 (28-1 overall)

T-2. Maryland 15-3 (27-3 overall)

T-2. Michigan 15-3 (25-4 overall)

4. Iowa 12-6 (21-8 overall)

5. Ohio State 11-7 (21-9 overall)

T-6. Illinois 10-8 (20-9 overall)

T-6. Indiana 10-8 (21-9 overall)

T-6. Michigan State 10-8 (21-8 overall)

T-6. Nebraska 10-8 (21-8 overall)

T-6. Oregon 10-8 (22-9 overall)

T-6. USC 10-8 (18-11 overall)

T-6. Washington 10-8 (20-9 overall)

13. Minnesota 8-10 (17-12 overall)

14. Wisconsin 5-13 (13-16 overall)

15. Purdue 3-15 (11-18 overall)

T-16. Penn State 2-16 (9-20 overall)

T-16. Rutgers 2-16 (10-19 overall)

18. Northwestern 1-17 (7-22 overall)

Comments: jeff.linder@thegazette.com