Breaking down Iowa men’s basketball’s possible paths to Big Ten tournament berth

IOWA CITY — Iowa men’s basketball is in danger of making the wrong type of history.

Going into Thursday’s games, the Hawkeyes are 16th in the Big Ten standings. Only 15 teams will go to this year’s Big Ten tournament — a change prompted by the conference’s expansion to 18 teams.

Here is what the Hawkeyes need to do on Thursday against No. 8 Michigan State and on Sunday against Nebraska to avoid becoming part of the first group of teams to miss the Big Ten tournament:

If Iowa loses to Michigan State

If the Hawkeyes cannot topple No. 8 Michigan State, their path to Indianapolis is remarkably straightforward. Defeat Nebraska on Sunday, and Iowa has a spot in the conference tournament. Lose to Nebraska, and Iowa will be watching from home.

If Iowa upsets Michigan State

In the unlikely case of an upset over Michigan State on Thursday, Iowa could go to Indianapolis if it defeats Nebraska or if Minnesota defeats Rutgers. (Both games are on Sunday.) If both Nebraska and Rutgers win on Sunday, the Hawkeyes would miss the conference tournament.

What are Iowa’s chances in each game?

College basketball analytics site KenPom gives Iowa a 25 percent chance of defeating Michigan State and a 27 percent chance of defeating Nebraska, as of late Wednesday evening.

Fellow analytics site Bart Torvik is not much kinder to the Hawkeyes, giving them a 28 percent chance in each of their last two games.

Thursday will mark the first matchup this season between Iowa and Michigan State. When Iowa last played Nebraska, the Hawkeyes overcame a double-digit deficit in the second half to win in overtime at Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

The bottom line

If the Hawkeyes go 2-0, they would for sure be in the tournament. An 0-2 stretch would for sure cause the Hawkeyes to miss the field. A 1-1 stretch would depend on a couple factors.

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com

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