Analysis, guesses and projections on the second half of the 2023-24 Big Ten women’s basketball race

IOWA CITY — Preseason, they were picked 1-2-3.

Midseason, they are 1A-1B-1C.

The back half of the Big Ten women’s basketball season commences Wednesday, and the triumvirate of Iowa, Indiana and Ohio State are sitting where most expected.

The Hawkeyes (19-2 overall, 8-1 Big Ten), the Hoosiers (17-2, 8-1) and the Buckeyes (17-3, 8-1) comprise the inner orbit to the championship race, which likely will go down to the final day of regular-season competition, March 3.

According to WarrenNolan.com, Iowa is favored in eight of its final nine league games (the lone exception, at Indiana on Feb. 22).

The Hawkeyes are at Northwestern (7-13, 2-7) Wednesday (Peacock), with a 7 p.m. tip.

A collection of thoughts and predictions as the stretch run approaches:

The Big Ten’s biggest surprise is ... ?

Penn State.

Since their most recent Big Ten championship in 2013-14, the Lady Lions have finished 13th, 11th, seventh, 11th, 12th, 14th, 11th, 12th and 12th (with a 4-14 record last year).

After their 36-point whipping of Maryland on Sunday, Penn State is in sole possession of fourth place at 6-3, and at 15-5 overall, it appears to be a lock to reach its first NCAA tournament in a decade.

The Big Ten’s biggest disappointment is ... ?

Maryland, by a mile.

The Terrapins (12-8, 4-5) hit rock bottom with that 112-76 loss at Penn State on Sunday, and with four games left against the three top contenders, it’s going to be a chore for Cedar Rapids native Brenda Frese to get her team to .500 in the league and make a 13th consecutive NCAA tournament.

Midseason Big Ten coach of the year?

Carolyn Kieger, Penn State.

The Lady Lions’ progress was slow, but steady, in her first four seasons ... 7-23, to 9-15, to 11-18, to 14-17.

Year 5 has been the breakthrough. The next two games (at Minnesota, home vs. Michigan) are keys to a possible 20-win season.

Midseason Big Ten player of the year?

Duh.

If Iowa’s Caitlin Clark isn’t a unanimous pick for the award, there’s a voter with a vendetta or an agenda.

The better question ... who is the second-best player in the Big Ten? Indiana’s Mackenzie Holmes is second in the league in scoring (behind Clark) and first in field-goal percentage, so there you go.

When does Clark break the NCAA scoring record?

With 3,389 points, and figuring her season average of 32.0 points per game, she is on track to reach Kelsey Plum’s NCAA Division-I record of 3,527 at home against Michigan on Feb. 15.

The two preceding hurdles (Jackie Stiles, 3,393; and Kelsey Mitchell, 3,402) will be cleared Wednesday. Mitchell holds the Big Ten record.

When do the contenders play one another?

Indiana and Ohio State only meet once this season; it’s at Columbus on Sunday.

An 84-57 home winner over Indiana on Jan. 13, Iowa plays at Bloomington on Feb. 22, then will try to avenge its overtime loss to Ohio State on March 3 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in a noon game that will be nationally televised on FOX.

Who wins the Big Ten regular-season title?

Taking all of the remaining schedule and the projections of each game, Iowa is projected to finish with 15.63 Big Ten wins, Indiana 15.25, Ohio State 14.45.

We’ll stick with the preseason picks of Iowa 16-2, Indiana 15-3 and Ohio State 15-3, with the Hawkeyes topping the Buckeyes in a winner-take-all battle in the finale.

How many NCAA bids for the Big Ten?

The Big Ten’s “big three” are locks, and the league could get as many as nine at-large bids.

The guess here is eight, with Michigan State, Penn State, Michigan, Nebraska and Maryland earning seeds in the 7-through-10 range, and Minnesota narrowly missing out.

Comments: jeff.linder@thegazette.com