Iowa vs. Northwestern analysis: Porous Northwestern defense gives opportunity to Iowa rushing game

EVANSTON, ILL. — When the Hawkeyes step off the bus at Ryan Field on Saturday, they’ll be playing in a position they haven’t been in since 2012: trying to snap a streak of back-to-back double-digit losses to unranked teams.

Iowa is not dwelling on the past, though.

“The outlook is always forward,” linebacker Jack Campbell said. “Obviously we had a tough game, but we got to move on and stay positive.”

Here’s what to watch for as the forward-looking Hawkeyes take on Northwestern:

Iowa offense vs. Northwestern defense

Iowa’s rushing attack has experienced some well-documented woes, averaging 2.9 yards per carry, but the Hawkeyes will have a prime opportunity to finally establish the run Saturday.

Under a new defensive coordinator, the Wildcats have allowed a Big Ten-worst 5.4 yards per carry and about 230 rushing yards per game.

That’s more yardage allowed per game than Iowa starting running back Tyler Goodson totaled in the last three games combined.

Behind Goodson on the depth chart, Ivory Kelly-Martin is out with a foot injury. That leaves redshirt freshman Gavin Williams in line to see more action.

Williams has 10 rushes for 40 yards and three receptions for 17 yards in 2021.

Northwestern’s defense hasn’t been spectacular against the pass either. Its four interceptions are tied for worst in the Big Ten.

The Wildcats’ 66.3 percent completion rate allowed also is the worst in the conference.

That will likely be welcome news for Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras, who is looking for his first passing touchdown since the Oct. 9 win over Penn State.

Northwestern still has a few defensive players who can cause problems for opposing offenses. Safety Brandon Joseph is a projected first-round pick in some mock drafts. Defensive lineman Adetomiwa Adebawore, meanwhile, has nine quarterback hurries, seven tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.

The few times that Northwestern has won the line of scrimmage usually turned into wins. The Wildcats are 3-1 when recording at least four tackles for loss and 0-4 in other games.

Iowa defense vs. Northwestern offense

When Northwestern succeeds on offense, it’s effectively running the ball.

The Wildcats ran for 209 yards in their win over Indiana State and 373 yards in their win against Ohio. Evan Hull has been one of the most efficient running backs in the conference.

Thankfully for Iowa fans, the Hawkeyes have been one of the most efficient defenses in the conference at stopping opposing rushing attacks.

The quarterback position has seen plenty of turmoil in Evanston. One practically needs a chart to track who has been the quarterback for which games.

Northwestern opened the year with Hunter Johnson as the starting quarterback. Then he was benched in the Duke loss. Andrew Marty took over against Duke before suffering an injury.

Ryan Hilinski, a sophomore, then became the starter. NU head coach Pat Fitzgerald benched him in the last game after he completed just 1 of 6 passes for 5 yards. Marty took over and looked promising. If Marty starts again, he’ll pose a mobile threat for Iowa’s defense.

With cornerbacks Riley Moss and Terry Roberts not expected to play against Northwestern, Jermari Harris is the projected starter at one of the corners. Since Moss went down with an injury in the first half of the Penn State win, Iowa has grabbed just one interception.

What’s at stake in Iowa-Northwestern

A win is necessary to keep the Hawkeyes’ hopes of a Big Ten West crown alive. A loss would likely boot Iowa from most, if not all, of the major polls.

Iowa would not get much credit in the rankings for a win against a Northwestern team that has been outscored, 137-49, in its last four games.

Iowa-Northwestern prediction

Iowa’s offense is reeling, but this is not the same Northwestern team that was at Kinnick in 2020.

Iowa 28, Northwestern 10.

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