The Straw Poll is dead; long live the caucuses

The Republican Party of Iowa killed off the Ames Straw Poll this month. It is not the Iowa Straw Poll, it is the Ames Straw Poll and some believe that trying to change the name jinxed it.

The poll had come under criticism from national news media and from states that are jealous that Iowa gets so much attention every four years.

Many Republicans I've interviewed in the past weeks say shutting the poll was wrong. They told me that the Ames Straw poll had been an event that allowed people who are not 'grim reaper” political junkies to enjoy politics, a rare thing with the bitter and divisive nature of politics. I know that my Iowa State University students loved the Straw Poll.

I always thought that it was a great exercise in organization that tested potential presidential contender's skills in messaging and organizing. It was a midsummer relief for the media who could cover an often humorous and lighthearted political event. It was also an 'early warning” for the Republicans about potentially disastrous candidates who might snatch the caucuses victory as happened when Michelle Bachmann won the straw poll. Many Republicans have told me that motivated the party to redouble their efforts.

One Republican told me, 'So next we need to shut down the State Fair 'Corn Poll” where people drop kernels of corn into bins with a picture their favorite candidate. Then we need to prohibit all of the other news media 'polls” that claim to tell us how 'likely caucus attendees” feel about the candidates because obviously that's also deceptive and misleading.”

Maybe the event had run its course. Or perhaps the Iowa GOP just caved to national 'big media.”

I fear that now that they've killed of the Straw Poll they will go after the caucuses, which after all are also 'just” a beauty contest - a straw poll, if you will. I've already heard the rumblings of that from reporters and from jealous political operatives and political 'gurus.”

The National Review actually did a poll of 'Political Insiders” of both parties. They asked 'Are caucuses an effective method of selecting a presidential nominee?” Ninety Democratic insiders and 88 Republicans voted.

Of the Democrats the vote was, Yes: 32 percent. No: 68 percent.

The Republican gurus voted Yes: 25 percent. No: 75 percent.

The conclusion? Obviously these 'insiders” disapprove of the caucuses.

I polled 16 highly reliable presidential caucus analysts. My question was 'Is the sample of Democrats and Republicans fair and representative or is it stacked against the Iowa caucuses?”

One hundred percent of my informants said that in analyzing the 'political insiders” chosen by National Review whose names were published in the article the cards were stacked against the Iowa caucuses. They told me they could flip those percentages by choosing a different selection of political 'geeks” or insiders who feel the caucuses are

an effective method of starting the process. They also pointed out that the question asked was inaccurate and biased because the caucuses are not a ” … method of selecting a presidential nominee.” The caucuses merely allow voters to identify the top contenders by favorability.

Then one of my researchers called my attention to Nate Cohen's Five Thirty Eight column 'The Iowa Straw Poll Is Dead. What Could Kill Off The Iowa caucuses?” The column is the usual BS about Iowa being too white and not a 'reliable” predictor of who gets nominated and who wins the White House. It also forgets to mention that Iowa points out the top three contestants who look good to Democrats and Republicans. As I have said until I'm blue in the face, Iowa is a great place to put the presidential wannabes through the paces and then winnow the field of candidates. It's a nice tradition. Most experts agree that the results would not be better if the process started in another state.

Is there any doubt that the Iowa caucuses are in the bull's eye for termination by the national media?

' Steffen Schmidt is professor of political science at Iowa State University. Comments: Steffenschmidt2005@gmail.com