Resist pressure to send weapons to Ukraine

In the wake of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, a history professor of mine at the University of Iowa outlined for our class a scenario whereby a nuclear war could take place between the United States and the Soviet Union.

He asked us to imagine a situation in which East Germany might try to cut off West German access to West Berlin, believing that West German troops would not dare to force their way through a blockade.

Assessing that East Germany would back down when they saw American armor, American armor would assume responsibility for breaking the blockade. Seeing American forces intervene, Moscow would say, 'Aha, the Americans are willing to take on East German forces, but they will back down when they see Soviet armor” - and send Soviet armor to support East German forces.

Faced with superior Soviet and East German forces, American decision-makers would find themselves forced either to blink and withdraw in humiliation - something that goes against the grain of military people and U.S. Presidents alike - or make the decision to use tactical nuclear weapons hoping to keep it limited to Berlin. One could imagine how such a scenario would play itself out.

Unfortunately, a similar scenario has been playing itself out in Ukraine today with Kiev begging for NATO arms to be sent, Congress pressing President Barack Obama to comply with Kiev's request, and Moscow warning Washington against doing so.

Last week's cease-fire announcement may render the posturing moot. Let's hope so. If it doesn't, Obama should resist the pressure to send weapons to Ukraine. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who speaks fluent Russian, has spoken with the fluent German speaking Putin more, and knows his mind better, than any other Western leader. She firmly opposes sending weapons to Ukraine. France and Britain support her position.

'The problem is that I cannot imagine any situation in which improved equipment for the Ukrainian army leads to President Putin being so impressed that he believes he will lose militarily,” Merkel said. 'I have to put it that bluntly.”

Reflecting the depth of her concern, Merkel traveled to Washington, D.C., on Feb. 9 to meet with President Obama to explain her opposition to sending weapons to Ukraine and ask him to give a French-German tentative road map a chance to work during an upcoming summit in Minsk.

It's OK to threaten, but it would be the height of folly to provide arms to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Poroshenko has sworn that the Crimea - not just Ukraine's East - is and always will be part of Ukraine. If he gets American weapons and promises of American backing there is a good chance he will drag us into a full-fledged war with Russia to try to get back not only the Donbass area but also Crimea.

As the journalist Mark Ames observed in his highly recommended online article entitled Q: Is Putin Really Planning To Bomb Saudi Arabia?, 'That's the problem with wars - you have no [expletive] idea where they will go.”

' Dennis Lamb, from Chelsea, retired from the CIA in 2002 after serving 30 years in its directorate of operations as a case officer and an intelligence analyst. This column represents his personal views and not those of his former employer. Comments: lambden@hotmail.com