Predictions under the golden dome

The digital clock silently clicks 3:01 a.m. In a few hours, 27 pairs of third grade eyes will be staring at her, a teacher, in a few hours.

She hopes her school can hire more teachers, reduce paperwork, meetings, and maybe agree to a raise above insurance increase. But money is tight. She needs more time to prepare. She prays for latitude to be creative because that’s the joy of teaching. She’s exhausted by interference.

She hopes Iowa legislators will stop punching her profession. But hope isn’t a strategy.

No one needs a crystal ball. We have recent history. History may not always repeat itself, but as Mark Twain said, “It often rhymes.”

Property Tax Reform — No one likes to pay property taxes. But property taxes are a consistent source of public-school funding, and funding for essential services provided by cities and counties.

A slash and burn approach to cutting property taxes will scorch schools, counties, and cities beyond repair.

For example, U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra, now running for governor, suggested a property tax freeze for seniors. Step inside any Iowa church and he’ll be blinded by white hair. Iowa’s an old state. Schools will close, and counties and towns will dry up. But we hear crickets for any alternative funding source.

Public School Funding — Republicans cut income tax at the same time they provided a costly new private school entitlement with no ceiling. They’ve almost blown through the surplus they’ve been bragging about.

I predict they’ll solemnly announce public schools will need to make due once again with a below-inflation State Supplemental Aid amount. After all, they need to fund private schools. In addition, there may be a push for homeschoolers to get a piece of school funding pie. That will make the pie even thinner for hungry public schools. Public schools need at least a 5% increase in funding.

IPERS — The good news is the majority party realizes this is a “third rail.” They know if they touch it, they may fry their re-election possibilities. Instead, they’ll form a committee to make recommendations. The committee will look a lot like the DOGE with no public employees involved.

A handpicked committee keeps politician fingerprints off unpopular changes. But IPERS changes are far from dead. Watch which politicians receive big contributions from the financial planning industry. They’ll be more likely to support changes.

Wedge Issues — I think there will be bills meddling in classroom content. They also are worried about a teacher shortage. Look for a lowering of teacher standards, a bad band aid approach to a tourniquet problem.

We’ll also be treated to their deep-seated fear of diversity, equity and inclusion, (DEI) and once again they’ll punch down on books they don’t like.

Educators and community leaders need to speak with one voice. Attend forums, ask hard questions, and join protests. Our public schools are not just places of learning; they are our community centers. Let’s protect an Iowa resource.

Bruce Lear taught for 11 years and represented educators as an Iowa State Education Association Regional Director for 27 years until he retired. BruceLear2419@gmail.com