Political table-setting: Thanksgiving edition

My friend Seth McLaughlin of The Washington Times asked me for a Thanksgiving 'setting the political table” analysis of where we stand and what's swirling around us in Iowa.

He wrote, '… four years ago, Newt was polling first, followed by Herman Cain, and Mitt Romney - while Santorum was running second to last in Iowa.” Would this caucus season be the same he asked?

My answer was that first of all to quote him the paraphrase from former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson, 'In politics 24 hours is a lifetime.”

This is such an unstable year that maybe just 24 minutes is a lifetime!

As soon as Steve King endorsed Ted Cruz his numbers shot up like a rocket. He is well-liked and respected among Tea Partiers and evangelicals and therefore has coattails on which Cruz is riding.

Donald Trump will be hard to dislodge and the John Kasich machine (a very small machine, I would add) is solidifying his front-runner status even harder to damage by running Super PAC ads against him. I know in my bones that Trump enthusiasts will double down and stick with Trump because he is showing so much 'strength” and lack of 'political correctness,” which is the magic sauce that is giving him momentum.

Marco Rubio will gird his loins and go after Cruz now. His supporters need to start running some radio ads. Tip: Iowa GOP caucus goers listen to Rush and Deace, and Mickelson in the Morning and Simon Conway on WHO Radio.

Chris Christie is not as loud and dramatic as Trump so I don't know what will move his numbers. His supporters in Iowa (supposedly, Gov. Terry Branstad is his 'secret pal”) are not willing to come out and endorse him. The Iowa millionaires who have

endorsed him are so disliked by the hard-core social conservatives I am told that he gains nothing from their support.

I was told by my focus group that Rick Santorum is 'smelling and needs to be buried.” Bury him with Mike Huckabee. It's cheaper; just one coffin.

Carly Fiorina is stuck in reverse gear and seems to be going backward.

Ben Carson seems to be losing his mojo. In Iowa we don't hit our moms over the head with hammers. I honestly thought his home schoolers would stick with him through thick and thin. The unstable international situation I believe has unnerved many of them since he seems not to know or care very much about military and international affairs.

Jeb Bush - is he still in the race? He was endorsed by 33 Iowa rich business types a while back who have since faded into the cornfields - well, there is no corn standing this time of year - but anyway, they faded into the tree lined ravines in Osceola County.

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are still in a contest. It ain't over until the caucuses have reported in! Hillary still has significant problems but has a big crop of super-delegated, committed supporters and, we hear, the DNC and the Iowa Democratic Party in her pocket. I assume she has other state 'machines” in her pocket as well. She's hard to beat.

No, this is not four years ago. We have The Donald and we have the Paris terror attacks so there is an entirely different smell in the air. But get in touch with me in 24 hours and we'll talk again.

' Steffen Schmidt is Professor of Political Science at Iowa State University and CEO of SEAS LLC consulting. Comments: steffenschmidt2005@gmail.com