GOP caucuses and primaries will matter in 2024

There are more than a dozen candidates running for the Republican nomination for president. Many have descended on or will visit our Iowa State Fair. Although none won a blue ribbon for hog calling, several stood out. One, Doug Burgum, the governor of North Dakota, took pride, I’ve heard, that his National Guard has never invaded South Dakota.

I have had crystal balls for years. I bring them out from under the bed annually for predicting the winner of the World Series and every four years for presidential primaries. The balls are very cloudy this year so I should hesitate to predict what Donald Trump, Kim Reynolds and what used to be the Republican Party led by Mitt Romney will do. But, I can’t be silent. When nature calls, you must answer, and that’s my nature.

I have another way of looking forward. I have a rearview mirror. I have been involved in presidential primaries twice. In 1960, Hubert Humphrey lost two primaries to John Kennedy. He should have won West Virginia easily but the Kennedys bought it and Humphrey was gone.

1968, Lyndon Johnson dramatically announced he would not run for president again. Vice President Humphrey was in Mexico City on a diplomatic assignment. When he returned home the next night, he met with six staff and political wisemen.

There was never any question he would run. But one old hand urged him not to announce until it was too late to enter any primaries. That meant almost a month of public pretend indecision. We were certain friendly governors and state party chairmen could deliver what we needed. If he lost a single primary, he could lose it all again.

This year, in crystal ball time, I ask myself, “do the Iowa caucuses really make a difference for the Republicans?” Trump is far ahead of the declared candidates: Doug Borgum, Will Hurd, Francis Suarez, Chris Christie, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, Asa Hutchinson, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy. But he has what it takes: he’s very rich and has no government experience. You may not know much about most of them; but Gov. Reynolds has promised to take care of that.

Here is a report of her intent:, “Reynolds announced … that she plans to personally interview all of the GOP presidential candidates at the Iowa State Fair. And not only that, but she plans to “go beyond just the issues of a presidential campaign and allow fairgoers to see who the candidates really are.” Really are? For those who have been in office longer than she, it is a bit of an insult. I can hear the governor above the hog callers: “who are you really Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson, Nikki Haley?”

It may not really matter. Donald Trump gets 45-50 percent of the Republican vote in most polls. But, Mitt Romney, a solid old-style Republican, has urged the non-Trumps to get behind one candidate after primaries and caucuses in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. My crystal ball says Romney will never vote for Trump. Romney Republicans may stay home or even vote for the Democrat. It would be nice to know which side Sens, Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst are on.

Norman Sherman of Coralville has worked extensively in politics, including as Vice President Hubert Humphrey’s press secretary.