Election 2016: The view from 10,000 feet

I'm now doing Canadian CTV every week. So, I've had to synthesize and project politics a lot because if Americans don't understand what's going on in the 2016 race for the White House, Canadian cable television viewers are totally stumped!

So here's the long view, as I see it: In the Democratic column, Hillary Clinton has turned out to be a weaker and more damaged candidate than Democrats feared. Of course the GOP did a lot to destroy her over the last 8 years with constant and vicious. Their fear of her candidacy goes all the way back to 2008 and they wanted to make sure that the worst of the Clinton 'ick factor” would surface.

Both Clinton and Bernie Sanders have done very well in debates and they are talking about issues. Their disagreements, while more forceful now, are largely about specifics.

Of course Clinton also did a great deal of damage to herself with the emails and mysterious secret speeches to Wall Street. Even if there is nothing to see there, big questions linger - even among Democrats. Why on Earth did the Secretary of State, dealing with the deepest United States diplomatic and security secrets, use a private server in her home? Why won't she release the content of those paid Wall Street speeches? What horrible and shocking things did you say to the bankers, movers, and big-money shakers? It all seems awfully suspect. There still is a suspicion that the FBI investigation of Clinton's emails could yield an indictment of her, which would all but disqualify her from continuing the campaign.

On the other hand, Bernie Sanders is loved

by his 'peeps” and that's the magic he has. He is trusted. Hillary can't buy that. I think Sanders will do 'a full Obama” - go all the way to every state and every nook and cranny where there are delegates to be had.

Hillary may win with Super Delegates but if she relies too heavily on those votes to win the nomination this summer at the Democratic national convention, Sanders supporters will go bananas. They may just stay home on Election Day, although the vacant Supreme Court slot is a gigantic incentive for voters in both parties to vote and try to gain the White House.

On the GOP side, we have a party with too many factions. There's the Tea Party, the Evangelicals, The Establishment, the Rand Paul Libertarians, and the 'Trumpites” who are those left out by all these other candidates and segments of the party. Donald Trump has dipped into almost every conceivable demographic to mobilize an amazing, complex set of voters. He is getting support from independents and even drawing from so-called 'Reagan” Democrats.

How will the Republicans rally around a candidate, either now or at the national convention? It is now more likely that no one will get 1,237 delegates needed to win. If Trump is way ahead but they give the nomination to someone else the Trump supporters will ... see above ... go bananas! I'm not sure if they will just stay at home or if Trump will lead them into GOP 'exile” in the desert.

If Trump gets the nomination, many Republicans will either go home and not vote, write in a name (example: Jeb Bush for the Establishmentarians), or vote for Hillary or Bernie if he's the Democratic candidate.

The take away is that this is the most disruptive national election in my lifetime as I so forcefully said at my keynote speech at the William Clinton School of Public Service in Little Rock, Arkansas. Little did I know a month ago that it would deteriorate to large hands, penises, steaks, and Trump wine!

' Steffen Schmidt is professor of political science at Iowa State University. Comments: steffenschmidt2005@gmail.com