Can Republican feuding help a Democrat win?

For political junkies, at this point in the election cycle, before primaries and conventions, “what if” is like saying hello. It starts a conversation and encourages furrowed brows and a somewhat false sense of wisdom. “What if Joe Biden doesn’t run again?” “What if Donald Trump does?”

The question is usually simple. The answer never is. Surmise overwhelms certainty. In that context, here’s my take for 2024: Today, Democratic chances of victory are shaky, but may be significantly helped by Republican disdain for one another. Trump v. Cheney is only the start.

The finger pointing has started. Mitt Romney going after the Republican National Committee about treatment of Liz Cheney will not be the last spat. What the Republicans do to themselves may determine whether the Democrats, Biden-led or not, can win. They seem determined to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

A badly divided as the GOP is likely to weaken. Trump, though still the beneficiary of widespread support, is not the power he once was. When his lips move, only air, not truth, escapes. But occasionally we better listen. He intends to run for president again. He may not be quite that explicit, but his hints are not subtle.

But none of that may be relevant tomorrow. His announcement may not be, “I’m running, but I’m innocent.” The Jan. 6 committee hearings may not lead to an indictment for some crime, but they may. Even if they don’t, testimony has certainly encouraged ostensible Trump allies to salivate for the nomination. Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida is challenging Trump in New Hampshire and has moved up in the polls to even or a couple points ahead. Other Republican far-right contenders are waiting. Sens. Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley are panting just off center-stage. If Trump does decide to run, most, maybe all, will disappear. But that is certainly not certain.

What if Donald Trump doesn’t run in 2024? Republican primaries will not lack for candidates. Even now Mike Pence and DeSantis are openly at work. Another half dozen will be forced to run by popular demand if Trump is out.

What does all this mean for the Republican Party coming up to 2024? The far right lives on enemies and conspiracy and the primaries are fertile ground for that. They may be bound together by ideology, but they will attack each other, and the anger will last, making the convention a battleground and bad TV.

Every national convention I have attended (five) has been the same. Ardent supporters cheering or waving signs for their candidate; booing, sullen sitting for others. Candidates who lose may smile, embrace, wave, when they really want to encourage the nominee to fall off the platform. There is no effective salve for a political bruise.

The more traditional Republicans are not likely to embrace a Trump look-alike. They will come to the convention with votes and hopes, if not for themselves then for others. Their revulsion will be clear on TV. The Republican campaign will start with more than normal turmoil. What if it does? The Democrats chances of winning go way up.

Norman Sherman of Coralville has worked extensively in politics, including as Vice President Hubert Humphrey’s press secretary.