Poll: Branstad GOP's strongest 2010 candidate

By James Q. Lynch

and Charlotte Eby

The Gazette

Former Gov. Terry Branstad would be the strongest Republican challenger to incumbent Democrat Gov. Chet Culver, according to a poll of likely Iowa voters.

The poll, released by the Iowa First Foundation, a 527 working on finding winning candidates and issues, found support for the four-term governor “deep and strong,” according to GOP activist Doug Gross, a Des Moines attorney who was Branstad's chief of staff and the Republican gubernatorial nominee in 2002.

Branstad, now the president of Des Moines University, has indicated he's considering entering the race for the GOP nomination in 2010. If he chose to run, he would appear to have substantial strengths According to the poll by Hill Research Consultants: .90 percent of all likely voters recognized him; 68 percent view him favorably; and 15 percent view him unfavorably, giving him a favorable/unfavorable margin of +53 percent.

Culver brushed off the results of the poll of 700 likely 2010 voters conducted in late July, saying the results “mean nothing at all.”

“We will have one poll that matters: November of 2010,” he said. 

The poll, which found Culver a slim majority of those polled -- 52 percent – gave him a favorable rating, was commissioned by the Iowa First Foundation, a Republican advocacy group, and was conducted by Hill Research Consultants. Culver's favorable/unfavorable rating was +14 percent.

Culver said if a Republican 527 group wants to pay for a poll, they'll get the result they want.

“Surprise, surprise, they have a poll that is favorable for them because it's a partisan, right-wing operation that is trying to defeat Democrats,” Culver said.

Richard Schwarm, president of the Iowa First Foundation, said Culver should be concerned with poll findings that 31 percent thought Culver should be re-elected compared to the 55 percent who said someone else deserves a chance.

“It should be a wake-up call to the governor, which I'm sure he's well aware,” Schwarm said.

Sioux City businessman Bob Vander Plaats had 60 percent name identification with 28 percent viewing him favorably and 12 percent viewing him unfavorably, which is a +16 percent favorable/unfavorable margin.

Mike Mahaffey, a Montezuma attorney, who has not expressed interest in the race, had a favorable/unfavorable margin was +12 percent. Cedar Rapids businessman Christian Fong, who is actively seeking the nomination, had a favorable/unfavorable rating of +2 percent, according to the poll, which is available at www.iowafirstfoundation.org.

Iowa First Foundation is what is known as a 527 – an organization created under Section 527 of the IRS code to advocate on issues and influence elections. They are exempt from taxation.