New poll shows Branstad leading Culver 57 to 31 percent

UPDATED: A week after winning the Iowa Republican nomination for governor, Terry Branstad leads first-term Democrat Gov. Chet Culver 57 percent to 31 percent, according to Rasmussen Reports.

Branstad “appears well on his way at this point to an unprecedented fifth term as governor of Iowa,” Rasmussen said June 16 in its first look at the race since the June 8 primary election.

It was Branstad's best showing and Culver's worst in surveys going back to September 2009. Branstad posted a 53 percent to 38 percent lead over Culver in April. Branstad consistently polled 52 percent to 54 percent while Culver earned 34 percent to 38 percent of the vote in that same period, according to the Rasmussen telephone survey of likely voters.

A Culver campaign spokeswoman said Iowans should have little confidence in the Rasmussen survey and polls in general.

“Rasmussen is a Republican polling firm,” said Ali Glisson. “The last poll that had Branstad at 57 percent was the Des Moines Register's primary poll.  In the end, it was off almost 20 points.”

It is not unusual for the winner of a contested primary to receive a bounce in the polls following their victory, Rasmussen said. Branstad, who served as governor from 1983-99, won a three-way GOP Primary contest last week with 50 percent of the vote. Culver, first elected governor in 2006 with 54 percent of the vote, was unchallenged in his own party.

Rasmussen found that 41 percent of likely voters approve of the job Culver is doing as governor, while 58 percent disapprove. This is in line with findings in the previous surveys.

Branstad is now viewed Very Favorably by 27 percent of Iowa voters and Very Unfavorably by 15 percent.

Fifteen percent have a Very Favorable opinion of Culver, while 31 percent view him Very Unfavorably.

Glisson said Iowa's voters will have a clear choice when they vote Nov. 2, noting that Culver was receiving the endorsement June 16 of Planned Parenthood of the Heartland PAC.

“The women of Iowa will support our campaign because they cannot trust Branstad on health care or their own rights,” she said.

Both candidates are well-known in the state, but at this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Iowa was conducted on June 14, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95 percent level of confidence.