Group says poll finds Culver out of step with Iowa voters

By James Q. Lynch

The Gazette

Iowa Republicans and independents favor a constitutional amendment prohibiting same-sex marriage and Democrats are evenly split on the issue, according to polling done for a group hoping to elect a Republican replacement to Gov. Chet Culver.

The findings of Hill Research Consultants reinforce the Iowa First Foundation's argument that Culver, a first-term Democrat, is vulnerable to a Republican challenger in 2010.

In addition to finding a majority of Iowans hold the governor responsible for the state's fiscal problems, Iowa First said the results show he's out of step with Iowans on same-sex marriage. Marriage became a flashpoint in the 2009 legislative session when the Iowa Supreme Court struck down a ban on same-sex marriage in April. Bipartisan efforts to bring the issue to a vote were blocked by the Legislature's Democratic majority. Culver agreed with the Democratic legislative leadership not to debate the issue.

The poll of 500 likely 2010 general election voters makes clear “the path chosen by Culver and the Democrats is the wrong one for Iowa,” according to Doug Gross, a Republican activist and Iowa First founder. It's also evidence the 2010 “issue agenda” favors Republicans, he said.

The poll found 61 percent of Iowans would vote for a constitutional limit to prohibit same-sex marriage. It found 80 percent of Republicans and 58 percent of independents support an amendment. Democrats were split -- 47 percent for an amendment and 47 percent against it.

Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Michael Kiernan warned Iowans to be wary of “partisan polls that are disguised and presented to the Iowa media as legitimate private surveys.” He called then poll a gimmick and said Iowa First asked “loaded questions to get your desired results.”

That's a typical attempt to discredit poll results, according to David Hill of Hill Research Consultants, a member of the Auburn University research faculty and Republican pollster for 25 years.

“If they're best answer is to brand it as a partisan poll, well, that seems weak,” Hill said. “It's one of a number of things you can do when you're not winning.

While poll results are open to interpretation, Hill said, “I haven't talked to anyone who looked at the results and said, ‘Oh, I'm shocked.'”

Iowa First, a Section 527 organization working on developing issues, themes and strategies for building a winning Republican coalition plans to release more polling data on potential Culver challengers as well as how those challengers would fair in head-to-head competition with the governor.

For more on the poll, visit: www.iowafirstfoundation.org.