GOP candidates in limbo until Branstad decides

By James Q. Lynch

The Gazette

The possibility of former Gov. Terry Branstad running again in 2010 is having a “chilling effect” on the rest of the GOP field, but the opposite effect on Democrats, according to Iowa political observers.

Branstad's statement that he will decide by October whether to seek the GOP nomination to challenge first-term Democrat Gov. Chet Culver “creates some suspense,” Jason Hutchinson of Morning Sun, a member of the party's state central committee. That “puts the other candidates in limbo for a couple of months,” University of Iowa political scientist Tim Hagle added.

Those Republicans running or exploring candidacies include Rep. Christopher Rants and businessman Bob Vander Plaats, both of Sioux City; Iowa Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley of Chariton; businessman Christian Fong of Cedar Rapids; Rep. Rod Roberts of Carroll and Sen. Jerry Behn of Boone.

It's freezing donations to gubernatorial candidates as well as down-ballot candidates, one GOP strategist said. He predicted that once Branstad decides, the floodgates will open.

Until Branstad then, top activists are giving only soft or conditional commitments to the other candidates, added a campaign operative who came of age after Branstad's 1983-1999 tunure at Terrace Hill.

However, Diane Crookham-Johnson, who's been through a few campaigns, said it's too early for donors to begin writing checks.

“A donor with a personal relationship with a candidate or prospective candidate might begin writing small checks,” the Oskaloosa Republican said. “The large dollars will begin rolling in closer to the primary race.”

Branstad provides a nice excuse not to write a check now, she said.

Besides, a former Branstad staffer said, Republicans will want to take time to check out “Branstad version 5.0.”

Drake University political scientist Dennis Goldford suggests another possibility:  Branstad may not be the cause of donor reluctance, but a symptom of a lack of confidence in the current candidates.

“It's not that the possibility of his entry makes people less confident of the range of the potential candidates. It's the other way around. Republicans are not so confident of the range of potential candidates. That's what's pushing talk for his entry.”

Tim Albrecht, publisher of TheBeanwalker.com, disagrees. The large field of GOP candidates is evidence of Culver's vulnerability, he said.

“All across this state, Iowans are yearning for a grown-up in the governor's office,” Albrecht said.

The possibility of a Branstad candidacy is “raising the intensity level for Democrats,” a longtime GOP campaign operative said. “Terry Branstad sent some political careers to the graveyard and some of them would like to settle old scores.”